UFC Vegas 91: Three Best Moneyline Bets

Don’Tale Mayes vs Caio Machado

UFC VEGAS 91: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Mayes brings in a good chunk of experience at the UFC level and an all-around game that most heavyweights are unable to showcase. However, that usually is not enough for him to get over the hump as he now is 3-4 with the promotion and has become one of the most inconsistent performers at this level. Sometimes he has big power, sometimes he can’t knockout a fly. Sometimes he has smothering top pressure with his wrestling, sometimes he can’t sniff a takedown.

Losing his UFC debut against a tough prospect, Machado looks for his first UFC win this weekend. Coming from the Canadian MMA scene, Machado did not fight great competition as there was a lack of heavyweights in his region to compete against. He showcases an aggressive striking game and even though he has a BJJ black belt, he doesn’t often seek that path to victory.

Machado showed me a lot in his debut loss against Parkin, making that fight a lot closer than I expected. Mayes normally wilts when opponents can dictate the pace and that is something Machado should have a handle on in this spot. Look for his forward pressure and big power punching style to break Mayes, leading to a finish for Machado in deep waters. 

The Pick: Caio Machado -120

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Austin Hubbard vs Michal Figlak

Looking for a successful second stint with the UFC, Hubbard came up short in his TUF Finale bout against Holobaugh last year. Luckily, the UFC brought him back and are giving him another shot. He was originally a striker with heavy leg kicks but has done a great job of masking takedowns behind his striking to put together a better all-around MMA performance. Training out of a high-level camp as well, Hubbard may be able to extend his UFC career this time around more effectively than he did before.

Figlak stumbled in his UFC debut by getting out-grappled by a striker. That was not a good look at all for the 27-year-old Polish fighter who was undefeated coming into the UFC. Figlak has a decent all-around game, but holes in his defensive grappling may cause him to have a short UFC career. Now nearly two years away from action, it will be interesting to see how much improving he has done in his time off.

I think people are letting the Holobaugh fight play too much in their mind as they break this fight down, which will give us a solid number on Hubbard. Figlak won’t have as much pressure and power success as Holobaugh did, which should allow Hubbard to comfortably get his game going. Kicks before takedowns, and a plethora of control time should allow the underdog to pull off the upset. 

The Pick: Austin Hubbard +155

Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama

One of the more talented fighters on the roster, Pearce has struggled to maintain his success over the course of 15 minutes, which led to his demise last time out against Joanderson Brito. He was getting to his takedowns easily, having some decent control time, but as his opponents provide resistance, Pearce starts to slow down. The entries on his takedowns and ability to control are high level, it’s all about managing his gas tank better which will take him to the next level.

Onama is a power puncher who has done a great job of rounding out his skill set. He showed off great poise and ability to battle back from adversity last time as he was hurt badly early by Gabriel Santos, but he managed to bounce back in the second round to find the finish. We know he is a deadly puncher, so his striking needs to be respected, but I question his ability to deal with grapple-heavy fighters.

This is a dangerous fight, but I’ve put Pearce around 65% to win this fight, which means at -150 (60%), I’m happy to take a shot on who I believe is the better overall fighter. I hope Pearce has done a better job of devising a gameplan to manage his gas tank better, although I think he will have success with holding Onama down and the resistance will start to dwindle as we get into deeper water. 

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce -150