Golden Knights vs. Stars Pick and Prediction – May 5, 2024

GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS. STARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 5, 2024 — When they needed it most, the Golden Knights came up with the third period they needed. And now they’re heading back to Dallas for a one-game shootout with the Stars, a matchup between two of the best teams in the Western Conference.

For this matchup, throw out the seeds. There’s a reason that Vegas didn’t have a season worthy of the defending champions, and it’s because they were injured all season. They are healthy now, and they’re coming off both one of their cleanest games and one of their most well-played games of the postseason.

Related: Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Strategies

The Golden Knights had to cut down on mistakes to have a chance in this series, and they did exactly that in Game 6. For the entire night, Dallas only got one chance on the power play and couldn’t cash it in, allowing Vegas to protect its slim lead. Vegas lost Game 4 and Game 5 because of poorly timed penalties, and the Golden Knights showed that they could play a disciplined game when it mattered.

Now the Stars have to find a response. That might be a challenge, given that they also played a clean game in Game 6 and still fell short.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Vegas Golden Knights  (48-31-9 SU, 41-47 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	+130
Dallas Stars  (55-24-9 SU, 39-49 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-150

Puck Drop

When: Sunday, May 5 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 83% on Dallas

Public Money: 80% on Dallas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 5th, 2024

Golden Knights vs. Stars In-Season Trends

Playing the under has been the way to go in this series. The under has cashed in four of the six games, and a Game 7 is likely to see both teams play a cautious game. If you saw Saturday’s matchup between Toronto and Boston, you’re likely to see a similar situation here. Both teams have been getting great goaltending as well, so the under is likely to be the best play on the board.

Related: Angell’s Sports Analysis – Where Might the PWHL Expand?

With both teams having won three games now, there’s little to be gleaned in terms of results. Game 7 is almost always a coin flip that’s decided by one mistake or one moment of magic. This is a case where you should simply follow your gut if you’re playing the result.

Players to Watch

Game 7 is always tough to predict because it can come down to the smallest of margins. The best thing to do is one of two things: either back a player that flies under the radar to find a goal, or back one of the biggest scoring threats to come through when it matters most.

For Vegas, Mark Stone is likely to play a big role in this game. The Golden Knights are a different team with him on the ice, and they showed it in the first two games in Dallas. Stone scored an empty-netter in the win in Game 6, and he’s likely to be a big threat here.

Wyatt Johnston continues to put up big numbers in the playoffs, scoring six points in the series. If Dallas is able to emerge victorious, he’s likely to play a role.

The Pick

In a Game 7 situation, there’s not really a wrong answer. The Golden Knights and Stars have played the best, most evenly matched series of the first round. Either team could win this game at any point, and it would be a surprise if this isn’t close throughout.

The value’s on the Golden Knights here, simply because they’re getting plus money in a coin flip game. The best bet is the under in what should be a tight game throughout.

Dan’s Picks

Golden Knights ML   Under 5.5 Goals