Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Expert Pick And Predictions – May 18, 2024

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS—MAY 18, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The lone game on today’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (63-28 SU, 51-39-1 ATS) traveling on the road to take on the Dallas Mavericks (57-36 SU, 55-38 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into Game 6 and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, May 18, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks – Series Recap & Betting Trends

Can The Top-Seeded Thunder Stave Off Elimination?

After dropping two of the first three games of this conference semifinal matchup, the Thunder leveled the series with a 100-96 win to regain the home-court advantage. However, with the chance to take a 3-2 lead, OKC lost Game 5 by a 104-92 margin.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — who finished in the year’s MVP voting — scored a team-high 30 points on 12-for-22 shooting from the field and 2-for-4 from deep. He also added eight assists and six assists. Although three other starters finished in double-figures, only one of those starters produced more than 12 points.

Chet Holmgren contributed 13 points and four rebounds, while Jalen Williams and Lu Dort added 12 points each for a Thunder team whose offense was very shaky, to say the least.

OKC shot 42.5 percent from the field and connected on just 10 of its 40 attempts from beyond the arc (25 percent). Despite facing elimination, though, the Thunder remain confident about their chances in Game 6.

“There is a lot that we can take away from this past game that was really good,” Thunder guard Jalen Williams said after the game. “I think we got a lot of stuff that we wanted to accomplish and just kind of lost the game. We know it’s a tough task going over there and winning, but now it’s kind of like that first to best out of three series and that’s how we’re treating it.”

Can The Mavericks Advance To The Conference Finals For The Second Time In Three Years?

Meanwhile, the Mavericks let a golden opportunity slip through their grasp when they dropped Game 4 at home. But this unit redeemed itself with a double-digit road win, putting the Thunder on the brink of elimination.

Luke Doncic’s struggles have been chronicled during this series, but he rose to the occasion in Game 5, posting another triple-double that included 31 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. He also shot 5-for-11 from beyond the arc, marking the second game in this series in which he has knocked down five 3-pointers.

Derrick Jones Jr. gave the Mavericks some solid minutes, scoring 19 points while making seven of his nine field goal attempts. Kyrie Irving, who has been relatively quiet in this series, contributed 12 points and four assists.

Although Irving is averaging 11 fewer points per contest in this series (14.4) compared to his 25.6 PPG in the regular season, the Mavericks’ offense was efficient, shooting 52.6 overall and 40 percent from distance.

Even more important, Dallas has a chance to close out another series in six games and punch its ticket to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three seasons.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Following their Game 5 victory, the Mavericks are a 4.5-point favorite in Game 6 (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 outings.
• OKC  is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Dallas.
• In their last eight road matchups against Dallas, the Thunder are 6-2 against the spread.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

Prediction: OKC Thunder (+4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 211.5 points, but the line total has dipped to 208.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in the Thunder’s last 11 matchups against Southwest Division opponents.
• In OKC’s last 12 contests, the UNDER total is 10-2.
• The UNDER total is 14-6 in the Mavericks’ last 20 games against Western Conference opponents.
• In Dallas’s  last 18 home games, the UNDER total cashed in 14 times

Prediction: UNDER 208.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following his 31-point  triple-double in Game 5, Doncic is the key player to watch in this matchup. He currently has -112 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -108 odds of finishing with less than 28.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• Doncic is averaging 32.9 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In seven games against the Thunder this season, Doncic has averaged 26.7 points per contest.
• During the playoffs, he is averaging 27.1 points per outing.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 53 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 31.9 points per outing.
• The Mavericks’ guard averages 31.8 points per game in 19 matchups against Northwest Division opponents,
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 26.5 points and 9.3 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 points