Purdue vs. Connecticut Expert Pick and Prediction – April 8, 2024 

PURDUE VS. CONNECTICUT EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 8, 2024 — It’s the national championship, and we’ve got the two best teams in college basketball competing for the crown. Houston might have had an argument if Jamal Shead hadn’t gotten injured against Duke, but that’s about the only team with a legit claim to the top spot besides these two.

But which one handles the pressure of Monday night better? Connecticut is the easy answer because the Huskies have been there, done that last year and have won 11 straight NCAA tournament games. But Connecticut also hasn’t faced a team as talented as Purdue. Last year, the Huskies ran through the tournament like a hot knife through butter, but they never had to prove themselves against a top opponent. Incredibly, over the past 11 wins, Connecticut has never faced a team seeded higher than No. 3.

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Purdue represents that challenge. The Boilermakers haven’t been this deep in the tournament since 1969, but they have shown no issues with beating top teams. Only Alabama and Michigan faced a harder schedule than Purdue, and the Boilermakers didn’t lose to anyone outside the Big Ten all season. Both teams do a lot of everything well, with neither one having much of an advantage in this game. This could come down to the final play.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Purdue (34-4 SU, 22-15-1 ATS)	O146	+7	O144.5	+245
Connecticut (36-3 SU, 27-12 ATS)	-6.5	-7	U144.5	-305

Tipoff 

When: Monday, April 8 at 9:20 p.m. EST 

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 57% on Connecticut 

Public Money: 74% on Purdue

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 8th, 2024

Purdue vs. Connecticut In-Season Trends 

If you had blindly put your money on Connecticut and Purdue to cover in every NCAA tournament game they’d played this March, you might now own one of the casinos. The Huskies and the Boilermakers are a combined 10-0 ATS in the tournament, with the Huskies adding two covers in the Big East tournament for good measure.

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It’s tough to get a good gauge on what’s going to work against either team because nothing has since Selection Sunday. Connecticut hadn’t let an opponent break 60 until Alabama, but the Huskies had no problem playing the Crimson Tide’s game and winning. Purdue was able to run away from Gonzaga and Utah State, but got down and dirty against Tennessee in a grinder.

The biggest difference between the teams might be the way they’ve gotten themselves to this moment. Ironically, Connecticut found itself on the opposite side of this 25 years ago: the Huskies found themselves overlooked against a Duke team that hadn’t been scratched the entire tournament. When the Huskies made them play from behind, the Blue Devils couldn’t adjust and the Huskies won their first national title. Purdue has shown it can come from behind multiple times in this tournament, but Connecticut hasn’t overcome adversity all year.

The Difference-Makers 

The cliché answer is to go with Donovan Clingan vs. Zach Edey. Instead, I’m going to look at the matchup between Cam Spencer and Lance Jones. Jones appears likely to get Spencer because of his ability to lock down a scorer and take him out of the offense. In the win over Tennessee, the Volunteers looked like they might knock Purdue out of the game in the opening minutes until Matt Painter put Jones on leading scorer Dalton Knecht. Knecht barely did anything the rest of the game, allowing the Boilers to turn the tide. How Jones handles Spencer will make a big difference.

On Connecticut’s side, Clingan has to stay on the court. Edey will get his points; he averages the same amount of points in Purdue’s wins as he does in the Boilers’ defeats. The Huskies can win if Edey scores 20, but they cannot win if Clingan is riding the bench. Avoiding foul trouble is absolutely critical.

The Pick 

Everything Purdue has done since the Fairleigh Dickinson game has built to this moment. The Boilermakers needed some toughness and experience to go with their scorers, and they came up with Lance Jones while taking the time to build their confidence.

Purdue has answered the bell every season and feels like it has finally reached its time. I’ve thought Purdue was the best team since Honolulu. I’m not changing now when the Boilermakers are 40 minutes from a title. Getting seven points in this game feels criminal; I’m backing the Boilers outright.

Dan’s Picks

Purdue ML    Over 144.5