Iowa vs. South Carolina Expert Pick and Prediction – April 7, 2024 

IOWA VS. SOUTH CAROLINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 7, 2024 — For the final game of Caitlin Clark’s celebrated NCAA career, she’s got to do the ultimate in college basketball one more time: conquer Mount Gamecock.

For the past three years, South Carolina has been the gold standard of women’s basketball. The Gamecocks won the national title in 2022, didn’t lose a game in 2023 until falling to Clark and Iowa in the Final Four and haven’t lost a game in 2024. Since the 2022 SEC tournament, South Carolina holds an unbelievable 79-1 record.

Related: Women’s Basketball Betting Boom

Of course, Caitlin Clark and Iowa represent the 1. Last year, the Gamecocks could not stop Clark, who went off for 41 points and lifted the Hawkeyes to a 77-73 win in the national semifinals. Iowa then turned around and lost to LSU, a team South Carolina had dominated in the regular season.

Since then, both programs have played outstanding basketball. Both have had some shaky moments (see: both teams vs. Indiana), but the consensus is that the two best teams have made it to Cleveland. The question now is, which one gets the job done: Clark’s star power or South Carolina’s depth?

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Iowa (34-4 SU)	O160.5	+6.5	O160.5	+225
South Carolina (37-0 SU)	-6.5	-6.5	U160.5	-310

Tipoff 

When: Sunday, April 7 at 3 p.m. EST 

Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 7th, 2024

Iowa vs. South Carolina In-Season Trends 

South Carolina had looked shaky coming into Cleveland, but the Gamecocks restored a lot of belief in how they handled NC State. The Gamecocks got pushed for a half, but in the final 20 minutes, they controlled the entire game and pulled away for a 19-point win over the Wolfpack. South Carolina prefers to outscore teams rather than grind them down, which should play well with Iowa’s style.

The win over Connecticut was a rarity for Iowa, which doesn’t get forced to grind too often. The Hawkeyes handled the assignment well as they eventually found their footing and got Clark going. South Carolina might try what Connecticut did, but it’s more likely the Gamecocks follow Indiana’s blueprint. With depth that most teams can’t match, the Gamecocks can afford to both run and play physical with Clark.

The Difference-Makers 

South Carolina had the challenge of stopping the NC State guards in the Final Four, and now it gets to try to focus on one instead of three. Iowa does have other options, such as Hannah Stuelke, but Clark will get most of the attention for good reason. She’s the one player on the floor who can change a game at any moment.

Iowa’s big concern is that what it tried against South Carolina last year won’t work this time. The Gamecocks had a weakness in 2023: they couldn’t shoot the 3-pointer well at all. This year, they snagged MiLaysia Fulwiley out of their backyard (she’s from Columbia), and the freshman is a reliable deep shooter. Defensive ace Gabbie Marshall will have to play her tight.

The Pick 

I cooled on South Carolina after the Indiana game. But the Gamecocks showed what they can be against a good NC State squad. Clark is a generational talent, but the Hawkeyes don’t have enough around her to match everything the Gamecocks bring to the table.

Clark’s been the biggest story in women’s college basketball by a mile, but this doesn’t feel like a fairy tale ending for her. I’m backing South Carolina to complete the perfect season.

Dan’s Picks

South Carolina -6.5    Over 160.5