Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights Pick and Prediction – April 29, 2024

DALLAS STARS VS. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 29, 2024 — Are the Stars back in this series, or was Game 3 more of an off-night for the Golden Knights? That’s the biggest question here, as Dallas seized control of Game 3 and held on for dear life, winning in overtime to at least get the series back to Texas for a fifth game.

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But if the Stars don’t improve on Game 3, staving off disaster might be all they’ve done with that win. Vegas didn’t even play well in Game 3 and still nearly came back to steal the game. The Golden Knights know they weren’t even close to their best, while the Stars asked a lot of their defensemen in the contest. Dallas only skates five healthy defensemen, which leaves the Stars fairly exposed when Vegas plays at its best.

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And that was on full display when the Stars couldn’t hold the lead in the final 30 minutes of regulation. Vegas only needed an opportunity to turn the game on its head and nearly put the Stars on the brink. Even though Dallas came up with its first breakthrough of the series, there’s a sense that it might have been the Stars’ last gasp.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Dallas Stars  (53-23-9 SU, 37-48 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	O5.5	-120
Vegas Golden Knights  (47-29-9 SU, 40-45 PL)	U5.5	+1.5	U5.5	+100

Puck Drop

When: Monday, April 29 at 9:30 p.m. EST

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 76% on Vegas

Public Money: 58% on Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 28th, 2024

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights In-Season Trends

Game 3’s win gave the Stars their first win against Vegas in seven tries. Vegas is 7-3 in the teams’ past 10 meetings, and one thing the wins have all had in common is that the Golden Knights have scored exactly twice in each defeat. One major difference of Game 3 was that the Stars generated 46 shots, 15 more than their season average. Dallas isn’t usually a team that generates a lot of shots, but the Stars played desperate in Game 3.

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The Golden Knights didn’t lose often at home down the stretch. They won eight of their final nine games at T-Mobile Arena, and the one loss was the season finale against Anaheim. Vegas might or might not have cared that night, but the Golden Knights have now lost back-to-back games on home ice nonetheless.

Players to Watch

Jake Oettinger has played much better in Game 2 and Game 3 than he did in Game 1, which made a big difference for the Stars. With Dallas’ defensemen overtaxed, the Stars need Oettinger to be on his game far more than the typical playoff goaltender. Over his past seven starts, he’s held the opposition to two goals or less six times.

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Brayden McNabb had just four goals in the regular season but already has two goals in this series. If you want to take a shot on a longshot prop play, he’s still going off at +1,800 to score a goal. It’s almost certain not to happen again, but it speaks to how difficult this series is going to be for Dallas. When the Golden Knights are getting these kinds of contributions, good luck stopping them.

The Pick

When I examine this series, I can’t help but think about a past matchup between my Ottawa Senators and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Senators won Game 3 in double overtime to cut the series deficit to 2-1, but I couldn’t help feeling like it was a deceptive result that wasn’t going to carry past that game. Sure enough, Pittsburgh whacked Ottawa in Game 4, and the series was done and dusted in five.

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This feels like a similar situation. Vegas has been the better team in this series, and Dallas barely managed to squeeze out a win last time out despite controlling the majority of the game. It doesn’t feel sustainable for the Stars in this matchup; it feels more like Vegas preparing to seize control of the series. 

Dan’s Picks

Golden Knights ML   Under 5.5 Goals