Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – June 25, 2023
CHICAGO SKY VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – JUNE 25, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. There are three games on Sunday’s slate. The first matchup includes the Chicago Sky (5-7) taking on the Connecticut Sun (11-3).
Do the Sky – who have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference – have a chance to knock off the team that has the second-best record in the WNBA? Here is a look at which team has the edge in this matchup and why.
When: Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
TV: ESPN 3, CW-26, and NBCS-BOS
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun – Season Trends
Can Chicago Turn Things Around Before It’s Too Late?
Chicago posted five wins across their first eight games.
Since that time, though, they have dropped each of their last five contests. And three of those five losses were by a double-digit margin. This includes an embarrassing 80-59 defeat at the hands of the Washington Mystics on Thursday night.
Of course, it doesn’t help when you convert just 29.5 percent of your shot attempts while shooting 23.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Alanna Smith led Chicago’s scoring attack with 13 points to go along with eight rebounds and two steals. Unfortunately, she got little help as Kahleah Copper and Marina Mabrey were held to seven and eight points respectively while shooting a combined 4-for-24 from the field. That simply will not get the job done.
As one would imagine, Chicago is not a team we would categorize as an offensive juggernaut.
They are ranked eighth in scoring (77.7 PPG) and ninth in offensive rating (98.0 points per 100 possessions). Fortunately, this squad is not overly terrible at the defensive end of the floor, as they are ranked sixth in both scoring defense and defensive rating.
If Chicago has any hope of coming out on top in this one, they will need a stellar defensive effort, to say the least.
Connecticut Sun Are Shining
Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun are trending in the opposite direction, as they have posted four victories in their last five outings, including a convincing 89-68 win over the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday night.
Tiffany Hayes hit a season-high four 3-pointers on her way to scoring a team-high 21 points. DiJonai Carrington contributed 17 points as well.
Connecticut boasts a roster that has four players averaging double-figures in scoring.
That said, this team certainly knows a thing or two about putting the ball in the basket. The Sun have the fifth-best scoring offense and they have the third-best offensive rating in the association.
From a defensive perspective, Connecticut is ranked third in both points allowed (77.9) and it has the third-best defensive rating as well – allowing 97.9 points per 100 possessions.
Here are my betting trends for this contest.
The Connecticut Sun come into this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite, and rightfully so. However, most of the trends point toward Chicago covering the spread.
- In their last six Sunday games, Chicago is an impressive 5-1 against the spread.
- Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. And the Sky are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 contests following an SU loss.
- In its last eight games following a SU win, Connecticut is just 2-5-1 ATS.
- The Sun are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests in which their opponent has a losing record. The Sky are 5-8 on the season.
- While this game will be on the Sun’s home court, they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Although all signs point to Connecticut not covering the spread, this team is rolling right now while Chicago has struggled in each of its last five outings. That said, I am going with the Sun to win and cover.
Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-5.5)
The projected over/under total for this game is 158 points. Here is a look at why I am going with the UNDER here.
The UNDER total has cashed in nine times in Chicago’s last 12 road games.
In Chicago’s last 15 games against Eastern Conference opponents, the UNDER has prevailed 11 times.
The UNDER is 14-6 in Chicago’s last 20 games overall.
Meanwhile, the UNDER has hit six times in Connecticut’s last eight games in which they played on two days of rest.
The UNDER has hit four times in the last five games between these two teams.
Prediction: UNDER 158 points
Player Prop Bet
My key player to watch in this contest is Connecticut forward DeWanna Bonner. She currently has -115 odds to score over 17.5 points and -115 odds to score less than 17.5 points.
In her fourth year with the Sun, Bonner is averaging 17.4 points per game. Even more important she has exceeded the 20-point threshold in three of the last four outings. And although she scored just 11 points in the team’s recent win over the Lynx, her point total would have been higher if the game would have been more competitive. Based on this rationale, I’m going with Bonner to exceed the projected points total here.
Prediction: DeWanna Bonner OVER 17.5 points
Connecticut Sun (-5.5)
UNDER 158 points
PPB: DeWanna Bonner OVER 17.5 points