Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: Expert Pick – July 2, 2023

CHICAGO SKY VS. INDIANA FEVER: EXPERT PICK – JULY 2, 2023 — Happy Sunday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage. One of the games on tap for today features the Chicago Sky (7-9) taking on the Indiana Fever (5-10).

So without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge and why heading into this match.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

TV: ESPN3, CW-26 and MARQ

Odds: Shown below, courtesy of DraftKings as of July 2, 2023.

Odds table for Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever

Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever – Season Trends

Both teams are below the .500 mark and both ball clubs have been struggling as of late as well. That goes particularly for Indiana Fever, who have dropped four of their last five games. This includes a pair of losses against the Las Vegas Aces and an 85-63 drubbing at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday night.

Chicago Sky defense could be key

Although Chicago has posted wins in each of their last two contests against the Los Angeles Sparks, they have dropped three of their previous five games. Looking at this team on offense, it leaves a lot to be desired. Notably, Chicago has the second-worst scoring average (78.0 points per game) and offensive rating (98.6 points per 100 possessions).

However, this team is decent in terms of defensive metrics. The Sky are ranked fifth in points allowed (80.9) and they have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league. Their ranking for the former represents a one-place improvement on where they stood a week ago. On top of that, Chicago is limiting the opposition to 32.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc, which is the fourth-best mark in the WNBA.

June 28, 2023 – Sky beat Sparks

The Picks

Right now, it seems as though it will be a mere matter of which team plays with the most desperation.

With that in mind, here are my betting trends for this matchup.

The Spread

The Fever are a 2.5-point favorite against the Sky. Here are a few trends that suggest why it may be a good idea to go with the Sky.

• Chicago is 2-0-2 against the spread in its last four games following an ATS win.
• The Sky boast a 3-0-1 record ATS in the last four instances in which they played on one day of rest.
• In their last eight games against teams with a losing record, the Sky are 5-1-2 ATS.
• Indiana is 2-5-1 ASTS in their last eight games when playing on two days of rest.
• In its last 10 home games, Indiana is a woeful 3-7 ATS.

Prediction: Chicago Sky (+2.5)

Over/Under

• The projected over/under total for this contest is 161.5 points. Here is why you should go with the OVER here.
• These teams have played each other five times dating back to last season. The final score eclipsed the 161.5 projected total in all five games.
• The OVER is 4-0 for Chicago in its last four games following an ATS win and each of the previous four times in which they played on one day of rest.
• The OVER total is 9-0 for the Sky in the last nine times they have faced an opponent with a losing record. The Fever are 5-10.
• The OVER is 6-1 for Indiana in their last seven meetings against Eastern Conference teams.
• The OVER total has prevailed for Indiana nine times in their last 12 games (9-3) when playing on two days of rest.
• The OVER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams in Indiana. And the OVER is a perfect 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these two ball clubs.

Prediction: Chicago Sky (+2.5)

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch from this contest is Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 16.5 points.

True, Mitchell is averaging 17 points per game this season. However, she is averaging 14.5 points in two meetings against Chicago this season. And Mitchell has not scored more than 15 points in her last three outings.

Prediction: Kelsey Mitchell UNDER 16.5 points

James’s Picks

• Chicago Sky (+2.5)
• OVER 161 points
• PPB: Kelsey Mitchell UNDER 16.5 points