Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Expert Pick – June 25, 2023
WASHINGTON MYSTICS VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK – JUNE 25, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. We have three games on Sunday’s slate. After my earlier look at the Sky vs. Sun, the second matchup includes the Washington Mystics (8-4) taking on the New York Liberty (8-3).
In a contest featuring two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, which of these squads will take the next step to cement itself as the second-best team in the conference?
Here is a look at which team has the edge in this matchup and why.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Mystics(8-4 SU) |
+6.5 |
+7.5 |
O161.5 |
+242 |
Liberty(8-3 SU) |
U160.5 |
-7.5 |
U161.5 |
-350 |
Tipoff
When: Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: ABC
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 25, 2023
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty – Season Trends
Mystics Do Not Excel on Offense, but Get the Job Done Defensively
The Washington Mystics started out the season as a .500 ball club, posting a 3-3 mark across their first six games. However, they have put that slow start behind them, winning five times in their last six games, including a season-high three-game winning streak. In their most recent outing, the Mystics upended the Chicago Sky to the tune of 80-59, which was their largest margin of victory of the season. Elena Delle Donne led the way with 18 points, six boards, and four dimes. Natasha Cloud added 16 points, three rebounds, and three assists.
Looking at this team from the offensive metrics, the story is not very good. Washington has the second-worst scoring offense (76.2 PPG) and defensive rating (97.0 points per 100 possessions). Conversely, this squad makes the grade at the other end of the court, as they are ranked first in scoring defense (72.5 PPG) and they have the best defensive rating in the association – allowing 92.3 points per 100 possessions. But the story doesn’t end there. Washington is also limiting the opposition to 39.9 percent shooting from the field and 28.5 percent from beyond the arc. Both are tops in the league. And in their recent win against Chicago, they limited their opponent to 18-for-61 shooting from the floor (29.5 percent) and 4-for-17 from distance (23.5 percent). Simply put, this team knows how to shut down the opposition.
New York Liberty Boasts Balanced Attack on Both Ends of the Court
The Liberty fared a bit better in their first six games of the season, posting four wins over that stretch. And following an 86-82 loss to the Sky on June 4, New York has won four times in their last five outings, and they are currently riding a two-game winning streak. This includes a 110-80 drubbing of the Atlanta Dream on Friday night. The Liberty got solid contributions from multiple players. Betnijah Laney knocked down four 3-pointers and scored 19 points. Marine Johannes contributed 18 points off the bench. Jonquel Jones finished with 18 points and nine boards. Courtney Vandersloot had 16 points, 11 assists, and seven steals. Last, but certainly not least, MVP-frontrunner Breanna Stewart notched another double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds to go along with six assists and two steals.
New York is one of the top offensive teams in the WNBA. The team is ranked second in scoring (87.8 PPG) and it has the second-best offensive rating as well. While they don’t excel quite as well at the other end of the court, the Liberty are ranked fifth in scoring defense (allowing 79.2 PPG) and they have the fifth-best defensive rating as well – allowing 98.8 points per 100 possessions. In a match between two teams that play defense well, this game could go either way.
Here are my betting trends for this contest
The Picks
The Spread
The New York Liberty are seven-point favorites in this matchup. Two things that jump out at me immediately. First, these two teams played against each other in the season opener at Washington. The Mystics came out on top 80-64. It is also worth noting that Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Despite these trends, here is why I’m going with the Liberty to win and cover.
- Washington is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games. This game will be played in New York.
- The Mystics are a woeful 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with an overall winning record. New York is 8-3 on the season.
- New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five contests overall.
Prediction: New York Liberty (-7)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total for this game is 161.5 points. Here is why I’m going with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Washington’s last 10 games that were played on a Sunday.
In Washington’s last 28 games against Eastern Conference opponents, the UNDER total has prevailed 21 times.
The UNDER has a 34-16-1 record in the Mystics’ last 51 games overall.
The UNDER total has prevailed for New York in the last five instances they have faced an opponent with a winning record. Washington is 8-4 on the season.
Prediction: UNDER 161.5 points
Player Prop Bet
My key player to watch in this contest is Washington forward Elena Delle Donne. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 18.5 points.
Delle Donne is averaging 18.4 points per game, which is very close to the projected total. Also, she has exceeded that total five times this season.
Prediction: Elena Delle Donne OVER 18.5 points