Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Pick and Prediction – April 24, 2024

BOSTON BRUINS VS. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 24, 2024 — Boy, did the Maple Leafs need that showing over the final 40 minutes of Game 2. After barely showing up in Game 1, Toronto once again found itself trailing Boston after 20 minutes in the second game before Auston Matthews put the Leafs on his back and willed them to tie the series.

Suddenly, things look very different as the series shifts to Toronto. No longer are the Leafs riding a five-game losing streak. No longer is Toronto riding an eight-game losing streak to Boston. Most importantly, the Leafs now have home ice in their corner.

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Meanwhile, the Bruins have made a decision that either gets coaches a statue or gets them fired. Coach Jim Montgomery has decided to go with a pure goaltender rotation between Jeremy Swayman and Linas Ullmark, swapping out Swayman for Ullmark after Swayman’s sharp performance in Game 1. Ullmark wasn’t the reason Boston lost Game 2, but it’s hard for a goaltender to get momentum when he’s switching back and forth every game. Rest isn’t a concern here, considering that there’s at least a day off between games in every game in this series.

It appears that Boston might be overcompensating for how last year ended. The Bruins’ season wound up in ashes last year because they waited too long to go to Swayman and rode Ullmark until he had nothing left. They won’t make that mistake this year, but they might be making another mistake in allowing neither goaltender to get momentum. If Swayman comes through tonight, none of this will matter. But if the Leafs pick up where they left off, Boston’s suddenly in trouble.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Boston Bruins  (48-21-15 SU, 39-45 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	-102
Toronto Maple Leafs (47-27-10 SU, 32-52 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-118

Puck Drop

When: Wednesday, April 24 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 64% on Boston

Public Money: 67% on Boston

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 24t, 2024

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs In-Season Trends

The big question here is whether the Leafs’ performance in Game 2 was an aberration or if they’ve finally gotten over their Boston mental block. Up until Game 2, Toronto had lost eight in a row to the Bruins, and they hadn’t scored more than once in a game against Boston all season.

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As a result, the under has cashed in five of the past seven meetings, including Game 2. Toronto’s biggest strength is normally its offense,but the Leafs have failed to score more than three goals against the Bruins in any of the past 10 meetings. If the Leafs aren’t scoring, the under is highly likely to hit.

Players to Watch

By far, the biggest reason for Boston’s success against Toronto is the success of its power play. The Leafs have always taken more penalties than they should, and Boston has victimized Toronto all year long with the extra man. In the past four meetings, the Leafs have given the Bruins 14 power plays, and Boston has converted six of them.

Jake DeBrusk in particular has been stellar with the man advantage. He scored two power play goals in Game 1 and had an assist on the power play in Game 2. Toronto has to control DeBrusk and the power play if it’s going to build off its momentum.

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If William Nylander plays, he becomes an X-factor. You simply cannot lose a player who scored 98 points in the regular season without an impact, even when you’re as deep at forward as Toronto. The Leafs will always have a strong offense as long as Auston Matthews is wearing a blue-and-white sweater, but getting Nylander back would really help him and John Tavares.

The Pick

Reports out of Toronto indicate that Nylander is leaning toward playing in Game 3. If he takes the ice, the Leafs become the favorites in this game. Even if he’s not in action, Toronto has had the better of the play in the series to this point.

The only thing keeping the Leafs from being ahead in this series is the penalty kill. They’re getting pucks to the net, they’re putting themselves in good positions and they aren’t the ones with a questionable goaltending strategy. Eating the small chalk with the Leafs makes sense here. 

Dan’s Picks

Maple Leafs ML  Under 5.5 Goals  Auston Matthews Over 1.5 Points (+125)