Best 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets
It’s not the 2010s anymore. We don’t have to wait for preseason to start throwing away money on dumb bets. We can do it for the draft! So let’s! Read best 2024 NFL draft prop bets below.
There are quite a few NFL draft prop bets that I like this year, and we all know content is king so I’m going to run through all of them. Every single one! So go to the ATM, take out $200 and put down ten dollars on all of these wild guesses. If you’re playing along with the Toby Challenge, post your ATM pin in the comments!
I’m going to break this into three sections; one being “standard” bets, the second being “medium” shots, and the third being the longshots.
Related: Toby’s NFL Mock Draft
TOBY’S TOP NFL DRAFT BETS (STANDARD)
NOTE: These picks are not listed in any particular order
Bo Nix Draft Position – Under 32.5 (+185)
Everything that I’ve heard suggests that Bo Nix is probably going to be drafted in the first round. I would bet on it at even odds, but to get it at +185? I will gladly take my chances that one of these QB-needy teams will get desperate and take a guy with a track record similar to Kenny Pickett’s.
Total Defensive Players Selected in the First Round – Under 10.5 (+141)
This is almost certain to be one of the more offense-heavy drafts in league history, and I have 9 defensive players going in the first round in my mock. Now it doesn’t take anything crazy happening for this not to hit but at +141 I do like it.
Total Defensive Linemen + Edge Rushers Selected in the First Round – Over 6.5 (+250)
Teams are always thirsty for 250+ pound humans who run 4.6-seconds in the 40, and this year’s class is particularly deep. I have 7 total DL/EDGE players in my mock, and while this will take a reach or two to hit, teams can’t help themselves but reach for these guys. It’s like teams are diabetic and edge rushers are their insulin. I’m betting on the insulin.
Position of First Drafted Player, Pittsburgh Steelers – Wide Receiver (+350)
I have the Steelers going OL but there has been talk of them going wideout for months, and I just think this should be closer to +250 than +350. Value bet! Until it pays out $0.
Position of First Drafted Player, Indianapolis Colts – Cornerback (+110)
There has been talk of the Colts making a move up for a wideout but in the end I think they stay where they are and take one of the top corners, and I think the chance this happens is much higher than the 50% suggested by this line.
Position of First Drafted Player, Detroit Lions – Offensive Line (+275)
I went over the rationale for this in my mock, but here’s a TL;DR version: The Lions are built around a top tier offensive line, they are going to potentially start losing some of their guys after this season, and this draft is absurdly deep on the O-Line. I’m banking that Detroit’s prioritizing of their OL combined with their late-round draft slot brings this to fruition.
Drake Maye – 2nd Overall Pick (+110)
I like this one less than I did a week ago given the drumbeat for Jayden Daniels, but in the end I just don’t think the Commanders pass on a 21-year-old prototype for a late breakout who loves taking massive jaw-breaking hits more than he loves his own family.
TOBY’S TOP NFL DRAFT BETS (MEDIUM-SHOTS)
Jaylen Wright – First Running Back Taken (+430)
I love Jaylen Wright and he’s very much a runner in the Alvin Kamara/Jahmyr Gibbs mold. We saw Gibbs get drafted surprisingly high last year and I like Wright’s chance as much as the guys slotted before him.
Position of First Drafted Player, Pittsburgh Steelers – Cornerback (+600)
If Terrion Arnold or Quinyon Mitchell were to fall, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers decide that they can’t pass on them. They’ve also been connected to Cooper DeJean, who I think is more of a safety but he’s listed as a corner for betting purposes.
Position of Mr. Irrelevant – Tight End (+1300)
This is the first pick that is just based purely on value with no real analysis behind it. The odds for this bet are crazy:
Quarterback +300 (because of Brock Purdy I guess)
Offensive Line +500
Defensive Line/Edge +500
Cornerback +650
Wide Receiver +650
Linebacker +800
Running Back +1000
Safety +1100
Tight End +1300
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +1600
Ok, so the question I have is…why? Why is tight end such a long shot compared to most of the other positions? You wouldn’t really think there’d be any increased likelihood for a particular position, right? Let’s look at the 44 Mister Irrelevants drafted since and including 1980.
So not only is it mostly random, tight end has actually been the most selected position! This makes no sense to me no matter how hard I think about it. Is there a shortage of tight ends this year? I’m going to keep digging.
Here is the positional breakdown of the 2023 draft:
This would make sense as to why some of the odds are the way they are; OL, DL and CB are typically the most commonly drafted positions and so it makes sense that they would have lesser odds than safeties and tight ends. (Note that some of the corners may actually be safeties, some DL/Edge may be LBs, etc depending on how they were listed on the site I took the data from).
Related: NFL Draft Betting Strategies
2022 was similar, with 46 corners, 47 DL/Edge players and 48 offensive linemen. Teams also seem to pound away at these positions in the 7th round, I guess when faced with a bunch of randoms they like to grab someone who is either big or fast. In this vein, corner arguably should have +500 odds to match the OL and DL bets.
From this data, some of the odds make a lot of sense and mathematically, I think cornerback is actually the best bet. OL and DL make sense too but I don’t love the odds. I realize that 2023 strangely had no linebackers going in round 7 but that was an outlier and there are usually about five. So that’s not a bad bet either.
I still like the tight end bet just due to the past history of it happening a bunch and the long odds. QB however makes absolutely no sense and I can’t suggest avoiding a particular bet more than I implore you to not bet this one. I am lost as to how the bookies arrived at +300 for that one.
Position of Mr. Irrelevant – Cornerback (+650)
See above. I also wouldn’t hate putting say $35 on OL, $35 on DL and $30 on CB and hoping for the best, as those positions consistently make up 55-60% of all 7th round selections. So you are essentially betting on a coin flip where the coin has a 55+% chance of coming up heads and if it does, it pays +180. This is my new favorite “sharp” bet. MATH SQUAD MOUNT UP
Position of First Drafted Player, Jacksonville Jaguars – DL/Edge (+700)
Trent Baalke loves big, fast defensive players, and while Jacksonville did sign Arik Armstead, they could still use some more defensive linemen. This one probably won’t happen but at +700 I do like it based mostly on gut feeling.
Position of First Drafted Player, Baltimore Ravens – Cornerback (+550)
Similar to my Jags hunch, as Baltimore seems to have a legit need at the position and a proclivity to draft defensive backs in the first round (Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, Matt Elam and Jimmy Smith since 2010). They are thin at corner even without considering that Marlon Humphrey misses a handful of games seemingly every year. Plus, given their slot at the very back end of round 1, a run on offensive tackles could push some talented corners down.
Position of First Drafted Player, Cincinnati Bengals – DL/Edge (+425)
I personally have the Bengals going offensive line in my mock, however they have spent there in free agency and most mainstream mocks have them taking an interior defensive lineman so this seems like a pretty good bet at these odds.
Position of First Drafted Player, Baltimore – Cornerback (+550)
I don’t love this one but I do think Denver is likely to end up with either Penix or Nix and I just am reminded of Drew Brees when I watch Penix, so maybe Sean Payton will feel the same way.
5th Overall Pick – Joe Alt (+500)
Similar to the above, I’m basing this on Jim Harbaugh’s recent comments about how offensive line is everything and only soy-boys draft skill positions high.
Team to Draft Jayden Daniels – Las Vegas Raiders (+850)
This one’s dumb but I’m predicting a slide for Jayden Daniels and I’m also predicting the Raiders to make a move up to get him.
TOBY’S TOP NFL DRAFT BETS (LONG-SHOTS)
Keep in mind that I’m putting less than $5 on most of these. Just some fun props to liven things up.
First Defensive Player Drafted – Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton (+7500)
Johnny Newton is awesome and if he actually did athletic testing and put up elite numbers, I think there would be legit talk about this being a possibility. I think there’s a reason he didn’t test, but I also think that NFL teams may also love him.
First Defensive Player Drafted – Byron Murphy (+1100)
I think Atlanta will trade back and some other team may end up drafting the first defensive player. I don’t like Murphy but the NFL teams apparently disagree.
First Defensive Player Drafted – “Chop” Robinson (+10000)
This is based solely on my mock draft and extremely likely to be a wasted dollar, but I love Chop and I’m calling my shot on this one. Again, I have a single dollar of confidence in my shot here, but it’s a called shot nonetheless.
Team to Draft Brock Bowers – Tennessee Titans (+1200)
A ripple effect of my “Joe Alt to the Chargers” prediction.
Team to Draft Xavier Worthy (Various)
Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
Tennessee Titans (+5000)
Atlanta Falcons (+5000)
Throwing a dollar down on a handful of WR-needy teams who pick at the top of Round 2.
Remember, everybody – the draft is better when you’ve got 30 prop bets going!
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