Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Expert Pick – September 10, 2023

WASHINGTON MYSTICS VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 10, 2023 – Happy Sunday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Sky vs Sun, our next game features the Washington Mystics (18-21) taking on the New York Liberty (32-7).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn NY

TV: NBA TV, YES App, NBCS-DC, and Monumental

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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WASHINGTON MYSTICS VS NEW YORK LIBERTY – SEASON TRENDS

Mystics Hoping To Go Into Playoffs With Some Momentum

Although the Mystics are 5-5 over their last 10 games, they have dropped three of their previous four contests. This includes an 80-75 loss to the Atlanta Dream on Friday. Brittney Sykes scored a game-high 27 points and collected six rebounds. Elena Delle Donne finished with 13 points and six rebounds.

The Mystics come into this matchup with the fourth-worst offense in the league. The silver lining is they have the fifth-best scoring defense (allowing 80.7 PPG) and the fourth-lowest defensive rating (101.6 points per 100 possessions).

The New York Liberty Are Too Hot To Handle

Not only do the Liberty have the second-best record in the association, but they are also 9-1 across their last 10 games. And they are riding the wave of an eight-game winning streak. Their last loss was to the Las Vegas Aces back on August 17. In the team’s last outing, New York defeated Los Angeles 96-89. Breanna Stewart scored a team-high 25 points to go along with six boards and three dimes. Betnijah Laney contributed 20 points and seven assists.

The Liberty have the second-best offense in the league. They also have the third-best defense in the association. And although the Aces are the defending champions, it would make for must-see television if these two teams made it to the Finals.

The Picks

The Spread

New York is favored to win this game by 9.5 points. I am not always comfortable going with the large spread. However, here are a few reasons that give me confidence that New York will cover the spread.

• The Liberty are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• New York is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that were played on a Sunday.
• The Liberty is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record.
• New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
• Mystics are 3-9 ATS across their last 12 road contests.

Prediction: New York Liberty (-9.5)

Over/Under

The O/U total for this contest is 162.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the under is the better choice.

• The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in Washington’s last five games against Eastern Conference teams.
• In the Mystics’ last seven road games, the UNDER has prevailed six times.
• The UNDER is 19-8 in Washington’s last 27 games.
• In the last 22 meetings between these teams, the UNDER boasts a 15-7 record against the spread.

Prediction: Under 162.5 points

Player Prop Bet

There was no PPB data available at the time of this writing. My key player to watch is New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart.

In her first season with New York, Stewart is averaging career-highs in points (23.3), rebounds (9.4), and assists (3.8). Stewart recently posted her fourth 40-point game of the season in the team’s 94-93 win over the Dallas Wings earlier this week.

Additionally, that was the third time in her career in which she finished a game with at least 40 points and 10 rebounds. If the projected scoring total is more than 23 points go with the under.

However, if her predicted scoring total is 23 points or less, then I would strongly suggest going with the over. Stewart has scored 23-plus points in five of her last seven outings.