Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick – September 10, 2023

PHOENIX MERCURY VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 10, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier looks at the Suns vs Sky and the Mystics vs Liberty, the last game we will preview features the Phoenix Mercury (9-30) taking on the defending champion Las Vegas Aces (33-6).

Given the disparity of the win-loss totals between these two teams, this looks like a mismatch on paper. But the games still must be played, right? With that in mind, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

TV: ESPN2

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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PHOENIX MERCURY VS LAS VEGAS ACES – SEASON TRENDS

The End Of The 2023 Season Could Not Come Soon Enough For The Mercury

There is no way to put this nicely. The Mercury have had an atrocious 2023 season. Not only do they have the worst record in the WNBA, but they have also recorded losses in each of their last 10 outings. The team’s most recent setback was a 94-73 loss to the Las Vegas Aces – a team they will be playing for the second time in three days.

As you would expect, the Mercury are not playing well at either end of the court. From an offensive standpoint, they are ranked 12^th and 11^th in scoring (76.4 PPG) and efficiency (98.8 points per 100 possessions). Phoenix is ranked ninth in points allowed (84.5 PPG) and it has the worst defensive rating in the league (allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions). Given the trends, it is safe to say that the Mercury will be happy to see this abysmal season come to an end.

Las Vegas Aces Still Have Something To Play For In Season Finale

The Aces come into this matchup leading the New York Liberty by a game in the standings. If they win, they finish with the best record in the league, which would give them home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. But if they lose and the Liberty beat the Mystics, several tie-breaker scenarios will come into play. Simply put, the Aces need to take care of business, which I’m sure they will.

Unlike their counterparts, the Aces come into this matchup with seven wins in their last 10 outings. They are also amid a three-game winning streak. The Aces have been clicking on all cylinders for most of the season. So, the fact they have the league’s best offense should not be a surprise to anyone. They also have the second-lowest scoring defense (80.2 PPG) and the lowest defensive rating (allowing 98.9 points per 100 possessions).

The Picks

The Spread

The Aces come into this matchup as an 18.5-point favorite. I have never been a huge fan of large spreads. However, there are a few noteworthy trends that suggest why going with the OVER could be a good choice.

• These teams have played three times this season, with Las Vegas winning each game. The average margin of victory was 22.3 points per contest.
• Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
• The Mercury are 10-25-1 in their last 36 games against Western conference teams.
• In their last 27 road games, Phoenix is 6-21 ATS.
• The Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last five games that were played on a Sunday.
• Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.
• In their last 21 games against Western Conference teams, the Aces are 16-5 ATS.

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-18.5)

Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 165.5 points. Here is why you should go with the OVER in this one.

• In all three meetings between these two teams, the scoring total eclipsed the 165.5 points predicted for this contest.
• The OVER total has hit for Phoenix in each of its last five games.
• In Phoenix’s last four contests against teams with a winning record, the OVER is 4-0.
• The OVER is 5-1 for Phoenix the last six times they played on one day of rest.
• The OVER total is 5-2 in Las Vegas’ last seven games following an ATS win.
• The OVER total has prevailed in each of the last four games between these ball clubs.
• The last 14 times these teams played in Vegas; the OVER is 12-2.

Prediction: Over 165.5 points

Player Prop Bet

There was no PPB info available at the time of this writing. My key player to watch in this contest is Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson.

She is averaging career highs in points (22.5), rebounds (9.5), blocks (2.2) and shooting percentage (55.2 percent).  If the projected scoring total is 23 points or less go with the OVER as Wilson has scored 23-plus points in six of her last eight outings, including back-to-back 30-point performances in the team’s recent wins over the Seattle Storm and the Mercury.