Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – September 10, 2023

CHICAGO SKY VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 10, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. With just one game left in the season, there are several games on the slate for your viewing pleasure.

One of the featured games includes the Chicago Sky (17-22) taking on the Connecticut Sun (27-12). This game will be difficult to predict being that both ball clubs have solidified their playoff positions. With that said, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:00 ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: CBS Sports Network, The U, and NBCS-BOS

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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CHICAGO SKY VS CONNECTICUT SUN – SEASON TRENDS

Despite Up-and-Down Season, The Sky Are In The Playoffs Again

Chicago is 4-6 in its last 10 games. However, thanks to a pair of wins over the Indiana Fever (96-69) and the Minnesota Lynx (92-87), Chicago advanced to the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Given the season they’ve had with key players going elsewhere during the offseason and the unexpected resignation of former head coach/general manager James Wade, the team’s chances of earning a playoff berth appeared murky at best.

Chicago is ranked sixth in scoring (81.2 PPG) and they have the fifth-highest efficiency. At the other end of the court, The Sky have the sixth-best scoring defense (allowing 83.2 PPG) and they are ranked seventh in defensive rating (105.4 points per 100 possessions.

Connecticut Sun Solid At Both Ends Of The Court

The Sun have produced six wins across their last 10 games. And like Chicago, they come into this matchup with a two-game winning streak. In its most recent outing, Connecticut defeated the Indiana Fever by a 76-59 margin. Tiffany Hayes led the team in scoring with 14 points. Alyssa Thomas contributed 10 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists.

Connecticut has the fifth-best scoring average in the association, averaging 82.5 points per contest. As well as this team performs from an offensive standpoint, this squad is even better at the other end of the floor. The Sun are ranked first in points allowed (78.4 PPG) and they have the second-lowest defensive rating (100.2 points per 100 possessions).

The Picks

The Spread

The Sun opened as a 9.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 10.5. They have beaten Chicago in all three meetings this season. While the first two encounters were double-digit victories for the Sun, the margin of victory was just six points in the third meeting (79-73). Here are a few reasons why picking the Sun to cover is a smart choice.

• Kahleah Copper will miss this game due to a toe injury. She is Chicago’s leading scorer at 18.7 points per contest. Without their top player in the mix, it will be difficult for Chicago to keep this one close.
• Connecticut is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a Sunday.
• The Sun are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with a losing record.
• Connecticut is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Sun are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on one day of rest.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-10.5)

Over/Under

The O/U total for this contest is 161.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the under is the better choice.

• In Chicago’s last 26 outings against Eastern Conference teams, the UNDER is 20-6
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in Chicago’s last eight games against teams with a winning record.
• In Chicago’s last 10 games, the UNDER is 7-3.
• The UNDER is 8-1 for Connecticut in its last nine matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Sun’s last 13 Sunday games, the UNDER is 9-4.

Prediction: Under 161.5 points

Player Prop Bet

There was no PPB data available at the time of this writing. My key player to watch is Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. She is averaging career highs in points (15.7) rebounds (10.0) and assists (8.0).

Given those numbers, if the projected scoring total is 17 points or less, go with the OVER. The rationale is Thomas has put up 17-plus points in five of her previous eight outings.