Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: Expert Pick – July 9, 2023

WASHINGTON MYSTICS VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – JULY 9, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. There are five games on tap for Sunday.

The first matchup includes the Washington Mystics (10-7) taking on the Connecticut Sun (13-5). Here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

TV: ESPN

Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun – Season Trends

This will be an intriguing battle between the second and third-best teams in the eastern conference.

Mystics Struggle on Offense but Can Hold Their Own Defensively

The Washington Mystics have split their last four games. In their recent outing against the Indiana Fever, they came away with a 96-88 victory, handing Indiana its sixth consecutive defeat. Brittney Sykes scored a game-high 29 points, five rebounds, and two assists.

In her first season with the Mystics, Sykes is averaging 12.2 points per contest. Meanwhile, this was the first time during the current season that she eclipsed the 20-point threshold:

Overall though, the Mystics are not prolific from an offensive standpoint as they are ranked seventh in scoring (80.5 PPG) and they have only the eighth-best offensive rating.

But in compensation, Washington has the top-scoring defense in the association. Just take a look at their key metrics:

• Washington allows just 77.4 PPG.
• The Mystics give up just 97.2 points per 100 possessions.
• Washington is also holding opponents to 41.2 percent shooting from the field (1st).
• Opponents are being held to just 31.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc (2nd).

Connecticut Sun Balanced at Both Ends of The Court

Just like Washington, Connecticut has also split its last four contests. But they snapped a two-game skid with a blowout success over the Seattle Storm, winning 93-73 on Thursday night. DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas each scored 16 points apiece.

Even more satisfyingly, all five starters scored at least 14 points. And if that wasn’t enough the result marked the 10th straight game that Bonner scored in double figures. During that stretch, she is averaging 20.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest.

The Picks

Connecticut is a top-five team from an offensive standpoint. And while they are not as good as Washington from a defensive standpoint, they have the third-best scoring defense. And so, in a game featuring two of the best defensive teams in the league, points may be hard to come by.

The Spread

The Connecticut Sun are a three-point favorite in this contest, though neither team has been great against the spread this season. Washington is 8-9, while Connecticut is slightly better at 9-8-1.

Here are a few trends that suggest why going with Connecticut to cover could be a smart play:

• Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road contests.
• The Mystics are 2-5 ATS in the last seven instances they played on one day of rest.
• In its last six games against teams with a winning record, the Mystics are just 1-5 ATS.
• Connecticut is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games that were played on a Sunday.
• The Sun are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four times they played on two days of rest.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 158.5. In addition to the UNDER total hitting in four of the previous five matchups between these two teams, here are a few more reasons to go with the UNDER:

• The UNDER is 4-1 for Washington in its last five Sunday games. And the UNDER holds an identical record in the last five games the Mystics have played on one day of rest.
• In Washington’s last five games, the UNDER has cashed in four times (4-1) when facing a team with a winning record. The Sun are 13-4 on the season.
• The UNDER is 7-2 for Washington following an SU win. The UNDER is also 7-2 in the Mystics’ last nine road contests.
• In Connecticut’s last four games against teams with a winning record, the UNDER total prevailed each time.
• The UNDER is 7-2 for the Sun in their last nine games that were played on a Sunday.

Prediction: UNDER 158.5 points

Player Prop Bet

There was no player prop bet info available at the time of this writing. But my key player for this matchup is Connecticut Sun forward DeWanna Bonner. She leads the team in scoring with 17.6 points per contest.

And as was previously mentioned, she is averaging a shade of 20 points per game in her last 10 outings.

With that in mind, go with the OVER if the projected total is 19 points or less.

Prediction: DeWanna Bronner OVER 20 points

James’s Picks

• Connecticut Sun (-3)
• UNDER 158.5 points
• PPB: DeWanna Bonner OVER 19 points

See more of James’s previous picks.