Virginia vs. Boston College Expert Pick and Prediction – February 28, 2024

VIRGINIA VS. BOSTON COLLEGE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 28, 2024 — To put it kindly, the past three games for Virginia have been practically unwatchable. The Cavaliers never play very fast and rarely put up big offensive numbers, but even by their standards, the past three games have been just abysmal.

Virginia comes in having scored 134 points in three games, or an average of 44.7 points per game. They actually won one of those games (they beat Wake Forest 49-47), but they’ve lost three of four and are quickly seeing their NCAA tournament hopes dwindle.

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Boston College has no postseason to play for, unless it wins the ACC tournament. But the Eagles are showing signs of progress in Earl Grant’s third season. BC hasn’t yet had a winning season under Grant, but it hasn’t had an NCAA tournament appearance since 2009.

The Eagles have time to be patient, as long as they’re seeing progress. And with two home games and winnable road games at Miami and Louisville left, a .500 ACC mark would definitely represent progress.

Beating Virginia on its own wouldn’t be, as the Eagles did that last year. A much more highly regarded Virginia squad came to Chestnut Hill, scored 48 points and left with a 15-point defeat. If the Cavaliers can’t step up the offense, another defeat to BC could be in the cards.

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The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

Virginia

(20-8 SU, 14-13-1 ATS)

O127.5

PK

O126.5

-115

Boston College

(15-12 SU, 11-15-1 ATS)

-2

PK

U126.5

-105

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, February 28 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Conte Forum, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

TV: ESPNU

Public Bets: 62% on Virginia

Public Money: 62% on Virginia

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 27th, 2024

Virginia vs. Boston College In-Season Trends

Boston College hasn’t exactly made Conte Forum a fortress when it comes to covering games. The Eagles have dropped four home games in the ACC to Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida State and N.C. State, and they’ve also failed to cover against Notre Dame. The Eagles have covered just three times at home in league play, and none were against any of the league’s top teams.

There’s another interesting wrinkle with BC concerning the spread: The Eagles haven’t covered all year against a Power 6 opponent without getting to 80 points. They managed two covers against Harvard and Richmond where they didn’t get above 75, but every other cover has seen at least 80 on the board for the Eagles.

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Against Virginia, that’s a problem, because as we’ve established, the Cavaliers have had games where it looks like the teams might struggle to combine for 80. Virginia has failed to cover four in a row and has played under in three straight. Usually, the Cavaliers playing under means the defense is working, but in this case, Virginia just isn’t shooting.

The other question with the Cavaliers is whether or not they’ve reverted to their poor road personalities. In Virginia’s first four road games this season, the Cavaliers lost them all by 16 points or more and didn’t break 60. Virginia appeared to have its travels straightened out, but then the Cavaliers went to Blacksburg and got decked by 34 against Virginia Tech.

The Difference-Makers

Quinten Post needs a big game scoring as well as rebounding in this game. Post’s rebounding skills are as consistent as they come, as he’s not failed to grab at least six boards in his past seven games.

But he’s far more erratic at scoring, ranging from 23 against Miami to six at N.C. State. One of Virginia’s main weaknesses is getting limited to just one shot. BC has to get Post to cut off the Cavaliers’ offense and provide some of his own.

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One reason the Cavaliers have scored so infrequently is that Isaac McKneely isn’t hitting from outside. Against BC, you have to score from the arc because the perimeter defense is just that weak. McKneely has not topped 33% from the arc in six of his past seven games, excepting the 80-76 win at Florida State. If he can get his touch back, the Cavaliers have the edge.

The Pick

Just when you doubt Tony Bennett is when he ends up being at his best. But I’m not sure even he can get blood from this stone. Virginia is reverting to all of its worst habits at the worst time, and Boston College sees an opportunity to come up with a program-changing win.

I hate picking against Virginia, but I see no other option on its body of work.

Virginia vs. Boston College Expert Pick – February 28, 2024