Providence vs. Marquette Expert Pick and Prediction – February 28, 2024

PROVIDENCE VS. MARQUETTE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 28, 2024 — After some expected growing pains under first-year coach Kim English, Providence has come on strong. The Friars have won seven of their past 10 games, losing only at Connecticut, Villanova and Butler, putting themselves squarely on the bubble yet again.

Yet again is appropriate, because Providence is practically always on the bubble. Under former coach Ed Cooley, the Friars made seven NCAA tournaments in 10 years. Only two of them — 2015 and 2022 — saw Providence earn higher than a No. 9 seed. If March comes around and Providence isn’t in a tight spot, something’s wrong.

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This Providence team is in a tight spot because it can’t get the signature win it needs outside of Rhode Island. The Friars got a solid win in Cincinnati over Xavier, but that was just their third win away in Big East play (second, really, DePaul shouldn’t count). Besides, beating the Musketeers just doesn’t move the needle the way a win at Marquette would.

Getting that win is another story. The Golden Eagles have won 10 of 11 and the only defeat was at Connecticut, easily the hardest trip in the Big East. They’ve also got a chip on their shoulders given what happened back in December. Providence pounded Marquette 72-57 in Rhode Island, earning what’s easily the Friars’ strongest win of the season.

A season sweep likely lands Providence firmly in the field. But Marquette’s playing for a No. 1 seed, and with the return game with Connecticut still to come, the Golden Eagles could get it — if they can run the table.

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The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

Providence

(18-9 SU, 16-10-1 ATS)

O150

+11.5

O150.5

+490

Marquette

(21-6 SU, 16-10-1 ATS)

-10.5

-11.5

U150.5

-675

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, February 28 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

TV: FS1

Public Bets: 59% on Providence

Public Money: 66% on Providence

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 27th, 2024

Providence vs. Marquette In-Season Trends

It’s supposed to be hard to win on the road and hard to cover on the road. Nobody told Providence the latter part, as the Friars are 7-1 ATS in the Big East away from home. They’ve struggled to turn these games into wins, as they’re just 3-5 SU, but they’re always in the contest.

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Only Villanova managed to blow Providence out; everyone else came out with either a loss or a single-digit victory, and none of them were sufficient to cover the number against the Friars.

Marquette’s also been one of the best bets in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have covered five straight at Fiserv Forum and won each game by double digits. The loss to Butler is the only time all season Marquette has failed to cover at home in the Big East, even as their spreads become more lopsided. Other than Butler, Creighton is the only Big East team to come to Milwaukee and avoid a double-digit defeat.

The Difference-Makers

Providence is a difficult team for a size-heavy squad to play against, because the Friars are capable of both going inside and going to the perimeter. In the first meeting, the Friars won because they dominated the battle of the boards, grabbing 26 from Bryce Hopkins, Devin Carter and Josh Oduro. The shooting wasn’t great, but Providence made up for it by cleaning up on the glass.

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Oso Ighodaro disappeared a little in the first meeting, and Marquette paid the price. When Ighodaro makes himself a presence, the Golden Eagles are tough to handle. When he’s not quite up to the task, Marquette’s play suffers as a whole. Getting a full game out of him would make a big difference.

The Pick

Providence is so comfortable in this situation that it’s really not surprising to see the Friars thriving here. They know this is a no-pressure spot for them; all they can do in this game is improve the seed they’ve already got.

Marquette has played well in this stretch, but the Golden Eagles didn’t exactly handle Providence well the first time around. A Marquette cover here requires a 25-point swing from the first meeting, and I can’t see that happening to Providence.

This looks like another close but not quite game for the Friars, which works just fine for betting purposes.

Providence vs. Marquette Expert Pick – February 28, 2024