Auburn vs. Tennessee Expert Pick and Prediction – February 28, 2024 

AUBURN VS. TENNESSEE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 28, 2024 — As the rest of the world worries about the bubble and stacking wins for a run at the NCAA tournament, Auburn and Tennessee have something totally different on their minds.

The Volunteers currently lead the race for the SEC title, with the Tigers just one game behind. Both of these programs know they’ll be in the field and will hold a very high seed, so they’re playing solely for regular season honors.

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And in the Vols’ case, they’re going to have to earn everything they get. Tennessee faces one of the toughest four-game stretches anywhere to finish the season, let alone in the SEC. To close out the year, the Vols get home games with Auburn and Kentucky and road trips to Alabama and South Carolina, ending with all four of the SEC’s other programs that have won 10 games or more in the league.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s slate is far more forgiving. The Tigers will face Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia along with Tennessee, which should allow them to ease down the finish. But if the Tigers want an SEC title, they’ve got to win in Knoxville.

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The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Auburn (21-6 SU, 17-8-2 ATS)	O150.5	+6.5	O151.5	+250
Tennessee (21-6 SU, 13-13-1 ATS)	-6.5	-6.5	U151.5	-315

Tipoff 

When: Wednesday, February 28 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: 70% on Auburn

Public Money: 63% on Auburn 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 27th, 2024 

Auburn vs. Tennessee In-Season Trends

Lost in its gaudy record is the fact that Auburn has neither an impressive road win nor consistent covers away from home. The Tigers did cover against Georgia and Mississippi, but they failed to cover in losses to Florida, Mississippi State and Alabama.

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The win over the Rebels is their only win all year away from Auburn against a team that even has a chance to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. The Tigers’ lack of success isn’t limited to the SEC; they also lost at Appalachian State straight up and failed to cover on a neutral floor against Baylor.

Tennessee on the road is middling. Tennessee at home is terrifying. Other than one hiccup at home to South Carolina, the Volunteers’ average margin of victory in Knoxville is 25.7 points. Tennessee’s defense has been key to its home success: the Vols haven’t let anyone but Illinois break 71 in Knoxville all season.

The Difference-Makers 

Both of these teams have a genuine star on the floor who started college in a smaller league. Johni Broome did his work at Morehead State before moving to Auburn, and he’s shown he was an SEC talent all along. Broome averages 16.1 points per game and 8.6 rebounds, and the latter could be critical in this game with how well Tennessee capitalizes on second chances.

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On the Tennessee side, Dalton Knecht continues to be a 20-point machine. He’s not playing as well as he did in January, when he put up a six-game stretch where his lowest total was 25 points. But he’s still shooting well and he’s the key to Tennessee’s attack. Against Auburn’s defense, every shot will be critical.

The Pick 

Even with a quick pace, these teams are likely to let their defenses speak for themselves. Neither one gives up much on the defensive side, as both defenses rank in the fop five nationally. Cheap points aren’t going to be a thing in this game; both sides will have to earn everything they get.

Tennessee has two key edges here: Auburn fouls more than they do and gives up more second chances. That should provide the margin for the home side.

Dan’s Picks

Tennessee -6.5    Under 151.5