UFC Vegas 90: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Piera Rodriguez (9-1) vs Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1)
UFC VEGAS 90: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Looking to bounce back from her first professional defeat, Rodriguez brings in a stinging striking game and a solid coaching staff. She had some solid performances through her first two UFC bouts, but her flaw may have been discovered by Gillian Robertson in her last fight.
Calvillo is on one of the roughest runs in UFC history as she has lost five fights in a row. However, she showed in her last fight against Lupita Godinez that she still had the skills to compete at this level, even in a split decision loss. At her best, she can take fights to the ground and dominate her opponents from top position.
Calvillo will have a serious experience advantage in this fight, specifically against higher levels of competition. Her grappling edge should be the difference maker in this fight which should allow her to establish dominant positions and eventually find a submission. There’s been clear line movement on her throughout fight week and for good reason.
The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo +110
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Pedro Falcao (16-3) vs Victor Hugo (24-4)
Taking this fight on extremely short notice, Falcao gets his shot in the UFC even after picking up a victory on the Contender Series in 2021. He was rejected by Dana that night, sat on the shelf for two years, and returned to the regional scene in November. That night he picked up a second-round submission victory and showcased he is still capable of being dominant. Look for his 3rd degree BJJ black belt to come in handy this weekend.
Hugo was set to make his UFC debut back in November, but after a botched weight cut, he was forced off the card. Nicknamed “Striker,” Hugo’s main gameplan is usually centered around dragging fights to the mat and dominating opponents from top position. He has a sneaky leg lock game that sees him snatching up heel hooks and knee bars as of late.
The 24-4 record of Hugo looks quite impressive, however the level of competition he’s done it against has been low level. I think the BJJ black belt of Falcao will help him stay out of those sticky situations and he should be able to grind Hugo out over 15 minutes. Short notice will play a factor in this fight, but not so much that it won’t allow Falcao to still get the job done.
The Pick: Pedro Falcao +110 
Morgan Charriere (19-9-1) vs Chepe Mariscal (15-6)
One of the brightest stars from France enters his second fight with the promotion and looks to follow up a first-round finish from September. Charriere is a patient kickboxer who can mix it up in the grappling realm if he feels he has a big enough advantage over his opponent. He has some solid pop to his shots but has a questionable gas tank when he is in fights with a high pace.
Mariscal may go down as a fighter with the best regional resume based on the level of opponents and eventual UFC fighters he faced. He finally made it to the UFC last year where he is now 2-0 and rides a five-fight winning streak. He is all gas, no brakes, and loves to drag his opponent into wars. Training out of Team Elevation, it’s clear he likes to weaponize his cardio and pull away late in fights.
The threat of a finish is there for Charriere, but I think Mariscal can force him to fight in a way he is not comfortable. Look for Mariscal to put pace and pressure on Charriere which should allow him to pull away in deep waters. I will also be sprinkling the round three +2200 prop for Mariscal, but an outright victory will be good enough at the underdog odds.
