UFC 291 Draft: DFS Lineup
UFC 291 DRAFT: DFS LINEUP – There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections.
MVP Pick
Bobby Green $9,500
Bobby Green is fighting Tony Ferguson and is a -380 favorite. Ferguson has looked much slower and less mobile in recent fights. He is on a five-fight losing streak, albeit to the upper echelon of fighters. Green has not fared well against the upper echelon. Both men are tough as nails, with Ferguson being known for his ability to eat strikes.
It will be a fast-paced fight as Green likes to push the pace, which is a disadvantage for Ferguson. As well as that, Ferguson showed the ability to crack when he hurt Michael Chandler. But his lack of speed led to him getting knocked out. The difference will be the speed, and Green will have a chance to accrue three rounds’ worth of strikes.
Other Picks
Matthew Semelsberger $8,600
Uros Medic accepted the fight against Semelsberger on short notice after having surgery on his hand. That is not the best scenario for a fighter to be. He won his last fight against Omar Morales in May 2022 but lost to Jalin Turner in 2021.
Semelsberger will have a four-inch reach advantage over Medic. He also has a grappling advantage, which should help him win this fight. Medic can be controlled on the mat and possibly submitted.
Dustin Poirier $8,300
Dustin Poirier won the first fight against Justin Gaethje in 2018 and is the favorite again. He has slick boxing and a major grappling advantage if he can take Gaethje down. He attempted five takedowns and could not complete one in their first fight, so it is unknown if he can get to a grappling position.
Still, Poirier has phenomenal boxing and can be more technical than Gaethje. Gaethje has improved since the first fight, but it is tough to land more volume than Poirier, who also packs a powerful punch.
Alex Periera $8,000
Jan Blachowicz is initiating Alex Periera into the light heavyweight division as the co-main event. Periera was massive at middleweight, so he should be able to acclimate well. If he can keep this fight standing, then he should be able to find a knockout punch.
The Polish puncher has dangerous hands, and the power to knock out anyone in the division. He has been training with Glover Teixeira, so he has been working on his ground game. Blachowicz beat Adesanya by controlling him on the mat and will have the same game plan in this fight.
Michael Chiesa $7,800
Michael Chiesa’s last fight was a loss to Sean Brady in November 2021. The layoff was due to a back injury that he had to deal with. He is fighting Kevin Holland in the opening fight of the main card.
Holland has the advantage on the feet but has a major hole in his game. He has only defended 50% of takedown attempts and has spent time on his back.
Chiesa averages 3.39 takedowns landed per three rounds and has a clear wrestling advantage. Holland is tough and never quits, but he may not have an answer for Chiesa’s wrestling.
Derrick Lewis $7,700
Derrick Lewis has lost three straight fights and is in uncharted territory. The fighters he lost to were all extremely talented, and his matchup is a step down in competition. Lewis faces Marcos Rogerio de Lima, who is not a typical heavyweight. He likes to mix things up and use his cardio to tire out his opponents. It could work against Lewis, but he must avoid getting hit.
Lewis carries his power throughout the fight and has looked in better shape recently. Rogerio de Lima has only got knocked out once but never experienced a punch from Derrick Lewis.