Menu Close

Toby’s Week Four NFL Betting Recap and TNF Pick

Toby’s Week Four NFL Betting Recap and TNF Pick

TOBY’S WEEK FOUR NFL BETTING RECAP AND TNF PICK – Taking a quick look back at last week’s picks:

 Nothing Earth-shattering, but at least it’s another week above .500 on highlighted bets. 

Week 4 All Games: 8-8

All Season Total: 36-28            

Week 3 Green Games: 5-4

All Season Total: 17-11


Seems that I was a bit more scattershot than usual this week, as some teams I was likely overvaluing received some unbridled ass-whippings in week four.

This was particularly true for Cincinnati and Atlanta. Cleveland was a tough one given the surprise start given to a late round rookie QB, but at least I had the Ravens in that one.

Miami was my number one team going into last weekend’s games; they have dropped to fifth after getting absolutely smashed up in Buffalo by the newly number one, Bills. (San Francisco is second, Dallas third and Baltimore a surprising fourth).

Detroit slides into sixth as their defensive lapse against Seattle begins to look more like a fluke after they put the clamps on the Falcons and Packers.

I’ll get a full week five preview up tomorrow. As for the game tonight? 


This week marks the first week for which I am using real numbers in my projections, and these numbers absolutely hate these two sad-sack franchises.

Washington (25th overall in the Wreathway Power Ranks) did impressively almost not lose last week to Philadelphia.

However, my rankings have Philly in the eighth spot overall and thus are not swayed all that much by that result. In addition, one of their wins was a furious comeback against a Denver squad so bad that they have nearly broken the scale.

I have Denver at dead last in my power ranks, as the Broncos defense has been just historically atrocious through 4 games.

Their pass defense sits at 2.67 standard deviations below the mean. 2.67!

That’s like a Bob Beamon long-jump of defensive futility.

They followed up their meltdown in Miami by getting shredded by the previously dreadful Bears, who still managed to coach themselves into a bad loss. It’s going to be hard to out-tank the Bears, who appear dead-set on ruining Caleb Williams next year.

 Daaaa Bears

Speaking of the Bears, who are traveling into Washington tonight to permanently blind all those courageous enough to actually watch this game – I am still very, very down on this awful team as they rank 31st overall in my power rankings.

But in this case, given two terrible teams being lead by coaches who might screw around and find themselves on the chopping block before the calendar hits 2024, I am just going to take the points.

Washington at least has a league average defense, which should be enough to carry them against whatever this is that the Bears call an offense.

Justin Fields was actually decent in the first half last week, after which the Bears completely took their foot off what little gas they have and basically just invited Denver to come back and steal a win.

Unfortunately, they don’t get to play the Broncos every week so I expect them to come crashing back to reality in DC. Washington only seems to be able to score when they are down by multiple scores themselves, and I don’t think that will be the case tonight.

Yes, Ron Rivera, that’s a dare. Prove me wrong!

 Redskins 17, Chicago 13. Final score. Bet your life savings on the under*.

 *Please do not actually bet your life savings on anything

red state bbq big banner


  • Toby Wreathway, Contributor

    Toby lives in Miami and wagers primarily on NFL games in the hopes that he can use his winnings on bottle service at the club. Every season he crunches the numbers and then crunches those numbers even harder in order to solve life's most pressing quandary - "who is this year's good bad team?".

    View all posts

1 Comment

  1. Pingback:Toby's NFL Week 5 Betting Preview - GODZILLA WINS!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *