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Toby Recaps His Best and Worst Bets for NFL Week 10

Toby Recaps His Best and Worst Bets for NFL Week 10

Back to the status quo this week, as I once again lost to a hypothetical quarter flipped for every game.

I had Broncos @ Bills on upset alert, but I still rode with the Bills, unlike Josh Allen, who played as if he had bet his entire signing bonus on Denver. Seriously though, what has gotten into Allen this year? You can say the first pass went through Gabe Davis’s hands but he was lucky that the Denver linebacker didn’t get both feet down earlier in that drive. These aren’t even throws where Allen is trying to make a highlight reel throw, he’s just not seeing things the way he usually does.

I don’t think you can blame that on a coordinator.

Week 10 All Games: 6-8

All Games Season Total: 71-78

Week 10 “Green” Games: 3-4

Green Games Season Total: 30-37

This week looked like it was going to be a decent one until Baltimore once again let a team come back on them in the fourth quarter, which has certainly become a trend with them over the last year or two. 

Panthers @ Bears

This was one of the worst games I have ever seen in my life, particularly considering that there was no significant weather impact. This was one of the worst betting “wins” I can remember, but hey, a win is a win and I’ll take all of them.

My rule remains in place – why is Chicago getting points against anyone??? 

Colts @ Patriots

Ok, maybe I should take that back, because after the Panthers and Bears put on their obscene display, the Colts and Patriots one-upped them.

Related: Ravens vs. Browns Preview

Mac Jones appears to be completely unsalvageable at this point, as he did everything he could to ensure that Indianapolis -1.5 would hold up. This game may get the NFL banned from Europe. It was so bad that we might see Bailey Zappe next week. Nobody wants another Zappe Hour.

Packers @ Steelers

The Steelers were once again outgained by their opponent, they quit playing offense around halftime, and they were still somehow able to not only win but also cover the 3 point spread.

Jordan Love has struggled all year and yet looked significantly better than Kenny Pickett, who just isn’t developing. I guess that’s what you get when you draft a 24-year old QB. At least the Steelers have figured out how to run the ball again. Their impersonation of 1995 NFL offense continues unabated.

Texans @ Bengals

CJ Stroud continues to look like a future All-Pro. It’s early but it sure looks like Frank Reich will be resigning in frustration at some point over his team overruling him and drafting Bryce Young over Stroud.

Everyone is pushing back on the “Is CJ Stroud in the MVP discussion?” debate but at this point how could you not consider him? This team was supposed to win 5 games this season. They are already there at the halfway point and are looking a lot like last year’s Seahawks.

49ers @ Jaguars

Ever be just plain wrong about a game? No? Well good for you.

I have and this is one such example, as San Francisco absolutely owned the Jaguars from start to finish and look to be reverting to their early-season form, at least until the next time they suffer one injury and Brock Purdy can no longer function.

I’ve never been on the “Trevor Lawrence is a generational QB prospect!” train and while he looked like he would make me look bad last year, he seems to have reverted to his rookie year form.

Saints @ Vikings

I have not been on the Josh Dobbs Express either, but this week he did look like he may have turned a bit of a corner.

The Saints are a good defense and at least for a half, he torched them. We finally got to see Jameis play after an injury to Derek Carr and what do you know, the Saints became watchable. He even threw it to Chris Olave! Sure, he threw it like behind his back across the field while being tackled by three defenders, but I’ll take it.

That’s good football! This is what Curly Lambeau always wanted.

red state bbq big banner

Browns @ Ravens

Lamar Jackson has been mostly great this year, and you can say the pick-six was batted and maybe not entirely his fault, but it IS mostly his fault that he spent the 2nd half taking sacks rather than putting this game away.

This may be some growing pains with the new offense but if not, it’s definitely going be problematic against good defenses. I still have the Ravens as the number one team in my power rankings but they’ve lost a lot of the gap that they had going into this week 10. The Browns remain an elite team flying under the radar. 

Titans @ Buccaneers

Speaking of good teams flying under the radar, the Bucs are on the fringe of my top 10, checking in at 11th going into this week’s games. Hopefully they get some favorable lines that we can take advantage of.

I was all over them this week however that was mostly a bet against Tennessee, who are not good. 

Giants @ Cowboys

There is absolutely nothing to say about this one. It went exactly as everyone assumed it would. You could replay this game 100 times and the Cowboys would win 100 times.

In retrospect they could not make this line high enough and I should have sucked it up and put it higher on my list. 

Falcons @ Cardinals

I didn’t watch this game however I will assume that it did in fact happen. I am not surprised at all that the Falcons managed to lose a bad team with a QB who hasn’t played since a major knee injury last season.

The Falcons could lose to the Bowling Green Falcons at this point. Arthur Smith should probably be working on Bowling Green’s janitorial staff.

Commanders @ Seahawks

The Commanders were spry in this one, and they were pretty much a lock to cover the spread throughout.

Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards! He also leads the NFL in pass attempts by 50 over anyone else, but still. That’s cool I guess.

Lions @ Chargers

Finally, an exciting game! Well, as long as you’re a Big 12 fan, I guess.

No defense was played in this one, but the Lions impressed by putting up 41 points on the road and proved that they can win a shootout if they need to. Don’t look now but Detroit has a nice climate-controlled road to the postseason.

Jets @ Raiders

I had bet on the Jets being able to hold the Raiders to single digits here, but the Silver and Black managed to step up and put 16 on the board. You could give Zach Wilson 5th and 6th downs and he still wouldn’t be able to score 16 points. 

Broncos @ Bills

And finally, this one. Whatever this was. The Broncos just stopped even trying to score after halftime, and they still managed to win. They did everything they could to lose this game, but nobody wanted the loss more than Josh Allen did.

I don’t know what the Bills need to do to get him right but they need to figure it out because if this is what he is now, their Super Bowl window is welded shut.

I’ll come back tomorrow with my Week 11 picks so that the fine readers of this site can bet the opposite in each one.

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  1. Pingback:Dan’s Week 12 College Football Predictions – November 18, 2023

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