Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Game 3 Expert Pick And Predictions – April 25, 2024

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS. NEW YORK KNICKS GAME 3 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS – APRIL 25, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Philadelphia 76ers (48-37 SU, 49-35-1 ATS) hosting the New York Knicks (52-32 SU, 45-38-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this Game 3 matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, April 25, 2024 @ 7:30 PM ET

Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

TV: TNT and truTV

 

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Philadelphia 76ers (48-37 SU, 49-35-1 ATS)	-3.5	-4.5	O201.5	-192
New York Knicks (52-32 SU, 45-38-1 ATS)	U205	+4.5	U201.5	+160

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Sixers Avoid A 0-3 Deficit?

The good news for the Sixers is that both games of their first-round playoff series against the Knicks could have gone either way. The bad news is they find themselves in a  0-2 hole as the venue shifts to Wells Fargo Center for Games 3 and 4.

Despite leading by a five-point margin with 30 seconds left to play, Philadelphia faltered down the stretch. As a result, the home team came away with a three-point victory.

Tyrese Maxey scored a team-high 5 points on 12-for-22 shooting from the field and 5-for-11 from beyond the arc. He also tallied 10 assists and nine rebounds.

Joel Embiid — who recently returned to the team’s rotation three weeks ago — finished with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists.  Even more important, he was not limited by the knee he appeared to re-injure in the series opener.

Following a game they probably should have won, the team remains optimistic about its chances.

“We did have a chance to win those two games,” Nicolas Batum said, via CBS Sports. “So all we have to do is keep fighting. Now we go home, it’ll be another big fight. Just go out there and keep playing. Keep playing. Adjust a couple of things. We did a better job today in rebounding. But in the last minute, we lost some rebounds.”

The Sixers have been bounced out of the playoffs in the conference semifinal round in each of the last three seasons. Now, they must win four out of the next five games just to advance past the first round.

Can The Knicks Continue Their Dominance Over The Sixers?

Following their 111-104 win in the series opener, the Knicks appeared to be on their way to losing home-court advantage despite finishing as the No. 2 seed in the conference. Facing a five-point deficit in the waning moments, Jalen Brunson hit a much-needed three-pointer to trim the deficit to 101-99. On the ensuing possession, Tyrese Maxey committed a turnover, giving the Knicks one last gasp.

Donte DiVincenzo missed a three-pointer,  but thanks to Isaiah Hartenstein collecting the offensive rebound, DiVincenzo connected on his second attempt, providing the home team with a 102-101 lead with 13 seconds remaining.

All five of the Knicks starters scored in double figures. Brunson led the way with 24 points,  eight rebounds and six assists on 8-for-29 shooting from the field and just 1-for-6 from beyond the arc.

Josh Hart stuffed the stat sheet with 21 points, 15 rebounds,  three assists, and two steals. DiVincenzo added 19 points on 4-for-8 shooting from distance, including the all-important go-ahead basket.

New York has now won five of its last six games against Philadelphia dating back to the regular season. Will that trend continue in Game 3 or will Philly find a way to get back into the series?

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Sixers opened as a consensus 3.5-point favorite, but the line has recently moved to five points for the home team (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Knicks are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Philly.
• In its last eight games as the underdog, New York is 6-2 against the spread.
• The Sixers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 outings.
• Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In their last 11 April games, the Knicks are 9-2 against the spread.

The Sixers have been 4.5-point favorites or more 35 times this season. In those games,  they are an impressive 23-12 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-8-1 ATS when they have been the underdog of 4.5 points or more. Given that the Knicks all they can handle in Game 2,  I expect them to bounce back in Game 3. However, the 5.5-point spread seems a bit large here.  That said, I’m going with the Sixers for the win and the Knicks to cover.

Prediction: New York Knicks (+5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 205 points (per Pre-Game.com). At the time of this writing, the line has moved 203.5 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Knicks’ last seven contests.
• The OVER total is 8-1 in New York’s last nine road games.
• In the Knicks’ last five matchups against Atlantic Division teams, the OVER total prevailed four times.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Sixers’ last seven outings.
• In the last five times the Sixers were installed as the favorites, the OVER total prevailed four times.
• Philly and New York have averaged a combined 227.4 points per outing. This is 23.9 points more than the over/under 203.5 points total.
• Opponents of both these teams are averaging 219.7 points per game, which is 16.2 points higher than the points total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 203.5 points

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Player Prop Bet

Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey has the highest scoring average of any player on both sides (34.0 PPG). Not only that, but he’s also averaging seven assists and 5.5 rebounds per contest as well. With regards to efficiency, well, he’s doing alright in that department as well.

He is shooting 54.2 percent from the field and a respectable 40 percent from the 3-point line. With those numbers in mind, Maxey is the key player to watch in Game 3.  He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the regular season and playoffs, Maxey is averaging 26.2 PPG across 72 appearances.
• In five games against the Knicks this season, he is averaging 29.4 points per contest.
• During the postseason, The Sixers guard is averaging 34.0 PPG.
• Maxey has played against Eastern Conference teams 48 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.3 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the NBA’s Most Improved Player is averaging 27.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Maxey has averaged 27.9 points and 6.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

James Tillman’s Sixers vs. Knicks Picks

Spread: Knicks (+5) Over/Under: OVER 203.5 points Player Prop Bet: Tyrese Maxey OVER 26.5 points