Oregon vs. Washington Expert Pick and Prediction – October 14, 2023

OREGON VS. WASHINGTON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 14, 2023 — The newest Big Ten rivalry gets one final meeting in the Pac-12, and it might be one of the best ones in the history of this rivalry. Washington and Oregon have established themselves as the class of the Pac-12 this season, as both teams have put up bunches of offense through their first five games.

Last year, the teams played out a classic that saw Oregon’s aggression bite it in the final minutes. The Ducks chose to go for a 4th-and-1 from their own 34 with 1:25 to play in a tie game and didn’t make it, which gift-wrapped the game-winning field goal for the Huskies.

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But up to that play, Oregon’s aggression paid off against Washington’s questionable defense. The Ducks never punted last season against the Huskies, stopping themselves with a missed field goal and two turnovers. By the same token, however, Oregon never figured out Michael Penix and Washington either. The Huskies punted one time last year and threw one interception, but scored on every other possession.

Washington’s defense looks no better than last season, but Oregon’s defense appears to have improved its play after holding its past two foes to six points each. Nobody’s stopped either offense all season, and one stop might actually be enough to make the difference in this game.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Oregon (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)	O67	+3	O67	+130
Washington (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS)	-3	-3	U67	-155

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 14th at 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 61% on Washington

Public Money: 68% on Washington

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 10th, 2023.

Oregon vs. Washington In-Season Trends

This could be a matter of who starts the game faster. Washington has gone into the locker room ahead in nine of its past 10 games, but both teams have been notoriously sting in the first half of games. Combined, Oregon and Washington have played to the under in the first half at a 15-8 clip.

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It’s also only in recent years that this matchup has become close. Prior to Chris Petersen’s arrival in Seattle, this was an annual beatdown that saw the Ducks win 12 straight over the Huskies. But the teams have now split the past six meetings, and the past four have all been decided by 10 points or less. Three of those four came down to one possession, and this is likely to do the same.

Weather

Cloudy and mild is the weather best known in the Pacific Northwest, and that’s what we’ll have for this game. Highs will hit 62 degrees, and even though it’ll be a cloud-covered day, it won’t be wet or windy. Rain isn’t likely, and winds should top out at four miles per hour.

The Difference-Makers

Both quarterbacks have played outstanding football this year. Michael Penix has finally been blessed with good health in Seattle, and he’s showing what everyone thought he’d be at Indiana. Penix leads the nation with 1,999 passing yards and has 16 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

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Bo Nix has been almost as good for Oregon. Like Penix, Nix started in the eastern half of the country and found his way west. Under Dan Lanning, Nix has blossomed, in part because he has a coach who schemed against him for three years and could point out his weaknesses. Now Nix has matched his raw talent with a better understanding of the game, and the Ducks’ offense has looked unstoppable. For the year, Nix has just one interception, showing just how far his decision-making has progressed.

The Pick

It’s hard to find much separation between these teams, who look like the two best teams in the Pac-12. Washington’s defense hasn’t looked as strong as Oregon’s to this point, but the Ducks also haven’t played much of a schedule compared to the Huskies.

Related: Dan’s Week 7 College Football Predictions

With this basically a matchup of evens, I want the points. I expect both teams will put up a lot of them.

Dan’s Picks

Oregon +3      Over 67