Dan’s Week 7 College Football Predictions – October 14, 2023

DAN’S WEEK 7 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS – OCTOBER 14, 2023 – I think I might be done with these team total predictions. That’s twice now that they’ve bitten me, as Notre Dame’s defense collapsed at Louisville and allowed the Cardinals to come up with a big performance. The first time, it should have worked but didn’t. The second, Notre Dame just let down and didn’t get the job done at all.

That doesn’t mean I’m leaving behind the oddball picks; just that I’m going in a different direction with them.

Here are Dan’s Week 7 College Football predictions.

Related: Toby Wreathway’s NFL Week 5 Betting Preview

Fresno State at Utah State (+4, 57), Friday

 

Utah State seems to operate on a time difference. The Aggies, for whatever reason, play some of the worst first quarters of any team in the nation. Throughout this season, Utah State has been outscored 84-13 in the game’s first 15 minutes. That showed up again Saturday, when the Aggies spotted Colorado State a 17-0 lead.

Related: Oregon vs. Washington Pick and Prediction

Utah State won 44-24, a rather comfortable margin of victory given the start. This is one adjustment sportsbooks do not make; they treat each quarter as individual and don’t believe in penalizing a team that starts slowly each week. Why? Few people will pick up on these trends and try to cash in. I will.

Pick: Fresno State -0.5 1Q

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Iowa State at Cincinnati (-2.5, 43), Saturday

I’m not buying Cincinnati’s offense in the slightest. The Bearcats’ average is badly skewed by dropping 66 points on Eastern Kentucky in the opener. But outside of that game, Cincinnati’s played and lost to BYU, Oklahoma and Miami-Ohio, never scoring more than 27 points. The Bearcats also have a six-point win over a bad Pittsburgh team that has no quarterback.

That’s not exactly a difficult schedule. Iowa State’s at least picked up two conference wins over TCU and Oklahoma State, and the Cyclones seem like they’ve been improving each week. Plus, the three Big 12 newcomers from the American haven’t done anything of note in this league yet. Until Houston stole a win off West Virginia, the three newcomers of Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida had gone 0-7 SU in the Big 12. Until one of them proves they can actually beat a Big 12 opponent without a large amount of luck, there’s no way I’m laying the points with them.

Pick: Iowa State +5 

Georgia Southern at James Madison (-6, 58.5), Saturday

At some point, Madison’s tendency of playing strong first halves and poor second halves is going to backfire. The Dukes have led at halftime in all five games, and while they’ve all been wins, Madison usually slacks off in the second half and allows a comeback.

Related: N.C. State vs. Duke Pick and Prediction

Georgia Southern has also been a strong first-half team, but the Eagles have played more complete games than the Dukes have. They also pass a lot more than they used to, and that takes full advantage of Madison’s biggest defensive weakness. Remember, this was the game last year where Madison came in undefeated and took its first loss, as they couldn’t stop the Eagles in the air. I don’t think that’s changed.

Pick: Georgia Southern +6

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Florida at South Carolina (-2, 50), Saturday

This is the thing about fading teams with big names: the public always wants to believe in them. Most football fans above a certain age remember the glory years of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, and they subconsciously want to live in a world where Florida is good.

Well, Florida’s still not all that good. The Gators have played two games away from the Swamp, and neither went well. They’ve lost to Utah’s backup quarterback and got hammered at Kentucky. They’ve lost two of their past three trips to Columbia, and this spread looks manageable.

Pick: South Carolina -2

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Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5, 34.5)

We’ve seen games where the team that has the ball last wins. This might be a game where the team that has the ball least wins, because both teams are defense-heavy. With Iowa down to a backup quarterback, the Hawkeye offense has somehow gotten worse: they’re ranked 132nd in the nation in offense, which was impossible last year because there were only 131 FBS teams.

Forget the Drive to 25; Iowa’s best plan in this game might be to take a page from The Waterboy, kneel down three times and punt and hope the defense can make a play.

Pick: Under 34.5

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UCLA at Oregon State (-3.5, 54)

Since the fans returned to stadiums in 2021, Jonathan Smith’s Beavers at home have been the best bet in college football. Over the past 2+ seasons, Oregon State is 16-0 ATS at Reser Stadium and 15-1 SU. The lone loss was when USC came to Corvallis and escaped with a 17-14 win with the Beavers catching five.

Related: Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Pick and Prediction

UCLA was able to handle Washington State at home, but going to Corvallis in the rain is not exactly what the Bruins want to deal with. Get ready for a lot more of these trips in the Big Ten, guys.

Pick: Oregon State -3.5

Dan’s Picks

• Fresno State -0.5 1Q

• Iowa State +5

• Georgia Southern +6

• South Carolina -2

• Iowa-Wisconsin Under 34

• Oregon State -3.5