Oklahoma vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – October 7, 2023

OKLAHOMA VS. TEXAS: EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 7, 2023 — Are we finally back to the days of classic Oklahoma vs. Texas in the Red River Rivalry? For the first time in over a decade, both teams come into this game unbeaten, and both have legitimate national championship aspirations.

The big question is, can anyone stop the other one? Both teams have put on a show offensively, but the defense has been questionable at best. Texas’ defense has given up a lot of yards without a lot of points, but it hasn’t faced an explosive offense like Oklahoma’s yet.

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The same is true for the Sooners, who gave up a season-high 20 to Iowa State last week in the first 21 minutes of the game. Oklahoma picked up its focus again in the second half, but another slow start could spell disaster here. The Longhorns move the ball much better than the Cyclones, and Oklahoma’s got to be ready for a fast-paced battle. Last year, they weren’t, as they took a 49-0 beating at Texas’ hands.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Oklahoma (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)	O59	+5.5	O60.5	+190
Texas (4-0 SU, 2-2-0 ATS)	-5.5	-5.5	U60.5	-230

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 7th at Noon EDT

Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 73% on Texas

Public Money: 83% on Texas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 5th, 2023.

Oklahoma vs. Texas In-Season Trends

Usually, the oddsmakers can’t set this total high enough. Of the past eight meetings, only two have failed to hit 60 points: last year’s 49-0 whitewashing and a 29-24 Oklahoma win in 2017. Usually, both teams have no trouble scoring, and in four of the past nine meetings, it’s taken at least 45 points to earn a win.

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Quick starts have been a big part of Oklahoma’s success this season; the Sooners have scored 20 or more in one quarter three times and have never trailed at the start of the second quarter. Texas has taken its time more; the Longhorns have scored seven or less in the first quarter in four of five games. But the Longhorns also haven’t allowed anyone to stay within single digits, showing they get stronger as the game progresses.

Weather

With temperatures in the mid 70s and wind not a factor, there’s no reason to expect weather to affect either offense. It should be a great day for football.

The Difference-Makers

Dillon Gabriel missed this game last year, and while he wouldn’t have made a 49-point difference, he had to have remembered watching his teammates get overwhelmed by the Longhorns. He’s thrown for 15 touchdowns against two interceptions this season, and he should be ready to make up for last year.

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Quinn Ewers has been almost as good, tossing 10 touchdown passes against one interception. Neither team has a great pass defense, so this might be a battle of who has the football last.

The Pick

Texas’ slow starts say that they could be playing with fire in a game like this. Neither team has really had an impressive performance yet, as Texas’ win at Alabama gets less impressive by the day. The Longhorns haven’t been scratched this season, but neither has Oklahoma.

Related: Dan’s Week 6 College Football Predictions

The Sooners should come in motivated to get off to a hot start, and that could make it difficult for Texas to create any separation. This Oklahoma team clearly isn’t anything like last year’s, and it’s healthy. Don’t expect the defenses to do much in Dallas; do expect this game to be a fairly close contest.

Dan’s Picks

Oklahoma +5.5   Over 60.5  Oklahoma First Half ML