Week 3 Madness
Our crack team of hopeless losers is here to give you a little more action this NFL weekend. We have all the point totals, parlays, and player prop bets a man you could pray for. Along with the John Fredericks mega column of NFL pick ‘ems, we want to discuss a different avenue in the betting world.
For anyone who wants a primer on some of the lingo we use, read our Points, Parlays, and Prop Bets Primer.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 9/25
ALERT! Hammer Time
Nate writes in from Reno to recommend taking Minnesota (-1) against the Saints in Week 4. The line is bound to go haywire after today and settle at (-3) or greater for the Vikes. This spread is an overreaction from a Saints defensive showing against a pedestrian Tom Brady and a comeback win against the Falcons. Hammer it.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 21, 2022
Jacksonville Jaguars at L.A. Chargers Under 42.5 (-110)
The Chargers have a nasty defense. They’ve been super aggressive with play calling this year and like applying pressure. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will be a menace for Trevor Lawrence. The Jags QB had a better week against the Colts, but in Week 1, he completed 57% of his passes against the Commanders. I think the Jags will rely on Etienne to run the ball and plan to win an ugly one on the road.
The Chargers are likely going to start Justine Herbert, who is banged up from a nasty hit last week. We all know Herbert can make the throws to bust this point total, but I’m willing to bet the Chargers play a lot of dink and dump football. Their defense can hold the Jags to under 14, while Herbert takes 100 plays to go 80 yards. Take the under and pray for ugly football.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who is listed as questionable, is a true game-time decision today based on how he feels, sources say. With fractured rib cartilage, Herbert was looking doubtful as of Friday as Chase Daniel took all the reps. But he's pushing hard to go now.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 25, 2022
Moneyline Parlay: Ravens (-140) + Texans (+135) + Rams (-190)
Parlay Payout: +514
This is a weird ML parlay where I juiced up the odds with an underdog in the Houston Texans. They might not cover, but I think they beat the Pats after last week’s debacle. I have no anxiety about a Rams win over the Cardinals, who should be 0-2. The Texans are my sweetheart team right now, because their QB is Davis Mills and they covered for me last weekend. I cannot get over the fact that Justin Fields has completed 8 passes past the line of scrimmage. Texans win outright and the payout is better than picking 3 favorites.
Marcus Mariota Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-105)
Okay, hear me out. Seattle’s defense is ranked 26th in passing yards allowed through two games. That’s 257 yards per game through the air with Geno Smith and Trey Lance/Jimmy G as their opponents.
Yes, Mariota hasn’t been great through the air. He’s averaging 197 yards per game. But the Saints and Rams have a top 15 secondary. Seattle does not. The Falcons would rather run the ball and use Mariota’s legs to widen the field, but the vig here is nice and I think Mariota can come through with a more impressive game on the road. Take the over and hope he connects for a big TD early. You can read more about Marcus Mariota’s expectations here.
You could play some parlays with they prop bet to increase the odds, but I’m no Prop King, so I’ll leave you with my one play for the day.