NFL Week 16 Prop Picks for Saturday's Games
NFL WEEK 16 PROP PICKS FOR SATURDAY'S GAMES - Christmas Eve is upon us and we are talking prop picks for this humongous slate of Saturday games. The lines for Week 16 continue to stay sharp, but the uncertainty for many of these teams provides us with a great opportunity to grab some player props with great value.
I have three player prop bets for you today and one little extra play if you're feeling frisky. Feel free to play these however you'd like, but I always recommend single ticket props. Parlays seem lucrative and the social media algorithms love to show the guy who cashed $20k on a ten dollar ticket, but these rarely hit.
Spread the love and play some player props to increase your action.
Speaking of spreads, you can check out Nate's best bets for the 1:00 games here and the Godzilla has all of Week 16's action lined up for you here.
Jack's Best Prop Picks
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24TH
Tyler Huntley (Over 155.5 Passing Yards)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Kickoff: 1:00 pm EST on FOX
Tyler Huntley's maddening day under center against the Browns last week has curbed his passing yards total this week when the Baltimore Ravens host the Atlanta Falcons.
Huntley has been relatively effective in his two full starts since Lamar Jackson's injury. In his first start earlier this month, Huntley completed 27 passes on 32 attempts for 187 yards against a stout Denver defense. Last week he threw for 138 yards on 17 completions and 30 attempts. He's yet to throw a touchdown pass.
The Ravens have trust in Huntley's ability as their backup. In both his starts, they've thrown over 30 times. He is a serviceable backup and has electric receivers who can create space.
Baked into this line is the Falcons' pass defense. Per Football Outsiders, Atlanta is 29th in pass DVOA (25.1%). On the road, the Falcons are allowing opponents to cover on third down 51.09% of the time. The Falcons play a soft zone coverage and sacrifice massive chunk yardage in the middle of the field. The secondary struggles with the explosive play.
If the Falcons can't put pressure on Huntley, then he's set to have a big day. The Falcons gave up 151 yards ant 2 touchdowns to Andy Dalton last week and another 87 yards to Taysum Hill.
Teams throw on the Falcons. Take the over on Huntley's passing yards.
Tyler Huntley Over 155.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Nick Chubb (Over 78.5 Rushing Yards)
Saints at Browns (-3)
Kickoff: 1:00 pm on CBS
It looks like Nick Chubb will play today, despite his questionable status all week long. This is good news for handicappers, because the total on his rushing yards may be low if Vegas is concerned about his injury.
Chubb is one of the most valuable players to his team. Per Football Outsiders, Chubb is 3rd in DYAR, 6th in DVOA among running backs, and 2nd in EYds. He is currently 3rd in rushing yards this season with 1,253 and 2nd in touchdowns with 13.
Chubb averages 79.3 rushing yards per game. His numbers against the total might give you pause, as he's only hit the over on rushing yard 5 times this season. Some of that has to do with injury. Chubb's rushing yards total is often very high because he is so valuable to the Browns.
The Saints defense currently ranks 23rd in rush DVOA (-0.7). They gave up 231 yards win the ground last week at home against the Falcons. They currently average 136 yards rushing per game on defense. New Orleans is much better against the pass and teams know this. The Browns will attempt to exploit the Saints' Achilles heel and rely on both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to move the football.
The weather is supposed to be terrible, so I expect the Browns to use their two back system to rack up yards on the ground. I would recommend also taking Kareem Hunt over 36.5 yards (110) as well.
Nick Chubb Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Kareem Hunt Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
De'Onta Foreman (Under 51.5 Rushing Yards)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Kickoff: 1:00 pm on FOX
It's time we start respecting the Lions defense. In their last three games, Detroit is averaging 55.7 rushing yards per game. Football Outsiders ranks the Lions 19th in rushing DVOA (-3.3%). The Lions famously porous defense has been very good against the run in December and I see no reason why that should stop here.
The Panthers are currently 20th in offensive rushing DVOA (-6.1%). Last week, they managed 21 yards on the ground against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have managed to use De'Onta Foreman well in situational spots, but he ranks 32nd in DYAR, 31st in EYds, and 26th in success rate. The Panthers don't rely simply on Foreman at running back, so he doesn't have a ton of opportunity to cross that 51.5 rushing yard total. If Chubb Hubbard is having a good day, the Panthers will turn to him.
Foreman is 5-3 in his last 8 games on the rushing yards total, but that trend doesn't bother me. When the run game isn't working, Foreman doesn't eat.
Carolina will attempt to exploit the Lions' pass defense in order to keep this game close. The Panthers have proven that they will abandon the run game when they are playing catch up and are more likely to pass against teams that are defending the run well.
Foreman's rushing yards total is too high here. I would play the recent trends and take the under.
De'Onta Foreman Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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