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NFL Week 16: Nate’s Best Bets for the 1:00 Games

NFL Week 16 Best Bets for 1:00 Games

NFL WEEK 16 BEST BETS FOR 1:00 GAMES - Week 16 is upon us and it is going to be wet and windy throughout much of the East Coast and Midwest. As a whole these are some of the lowest totals we’ve seen in quite some time, so be ready for a lot of ugly, old-school football. It seems like nearly every team in the NFC has a path to the playoffs, and the NFC South is still up for grabs with all four teams having a potential path to the top spot.

There are injuries galore, as per usual at this time in the season. But be aware that the Falcons, Ravens, Panthers (I think the whole QB room is just backups) and Eagles are all fielding their second-string today.

Check the injury reports before wagering along with the weather. And make sure to read Jack’s prop angles.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, o/u 43.5) 

This game may be a trap, but I don’t care.

I just don’t really understand why this line is so short for the Lions who have been hotter than a wildfire as of late against a team that has been surprisingly good since going all in on tanking when they fired their coach and sent their quarterback to waivers.

Here are the numbers: the Lions rank 6th in offensive DVOA and are matching up against a defense that ranks 20th. The concern here is that the Lions don’t sport a great defense, but it ranks 23rd after climbing out of an early hole in which Detroit trotted out the worst defense in the league by far for the first couple weeks of the season. That vulnerable Lions defense is matched up against the 29th rated offense led by Sam Darnold, so this doesn’t feel like the team that is going to exploit them. 

Additionally, I am way overextended on a bet I made when it seemed clear that the Panthers were in free fall, so they absolutely cannot win another game that puts them over 5.5 wins for the season. Otherwise, I’m going to have to cancel Christmas and return everyone’s gifts. 

Matchup of two teams battling for a sneaky playoff spot, but one of them is just way better. I’ll be a sucker here.


Nates Pick

Lions -2.5

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3, o/u 41.5)

The New England Patriots lost in absolutely horrific fashion on a failed lateral in which Jakobi Meyers took it upon himself to play quarterback at the end of the game, launching a lateral across the field to Mac Jones. The result was defensive end Chandler Jones scooping it up for the Raiders who ran over Mac Jones on his way to the endzone. 

It was uncharacteristic of the Patriots, but that seems to be more of the norm for them now. The offense stinks and the team just doesn’t look like the organized and methodical teams we’ve grown accustomed to under Bill Belichick. 

The Patriots haven’t beaten a team with a winning record at this point in the season. What we’ve learned about them is that they lose to good teams and beat bad ones. The Bengals are, at minimum, a good team. And at times, they look like they may even be a great one.

Again, these may be sucker bets, but I’m just taking the better team here. The Bengals are looking like a team ready to go to the Super Bowl again, and the Patriots look like they are about ready to start planning for the offseason. 

Nate's Pick

Bengals -3

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, o/u 35.5)

This game has all the makings of an absolutely hideous viewing experience, unless you’re some sort of sicko who enjoys watching horrible offenses led by bad quarterbacks.

Baltimore hasn’t been good with Lamar Jackson injured, but the defense is still good and they have the best rushing defense since trading for Roquan Smith. 

That rushing defense should present some problems for a pretty one-dimensional Falcons offense that is really only effective at running the ball. The Falcons do run it well, but I don’t think that Desmond Ridder can keep a defense honest with his arm, so this looks like a game where Ravens key on the run and maul the Falcons.

Tyler Huntley gets a little bit of a break this week because the Falcons are an absolute sieve defensively. That being said, Huntley has not played well at all this season when he’s been in games, so I don’t see how he takes advantage.

I suspect the Ravens probably dominate the Falcons on defense, but I’m not sure they can score enough to cover this number. 

The safer play looks like the under. Both of these offenses are bad. Don’t overthink it here.


Nate's Pick

Under 35.5 Points

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