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NFL Week 14: Best Bets for the 1:00 Games

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NFL WEEK 14 BEST BETS FOR THE 1:00 GAMES - Week 14 comes to us after a blistering Army vs. Navy game and another Raiders blown lead on Thursday Night Football. Six teams will take a bye this week and we wouldn’t blame you if you decided to take a breather as well.

Handicapping the NFL is hard. That’s why the two ranking members at the Pete Rose Church of the Prophets, Degenerates, and Sickos are here to help you catch a heater. We don’t take Sundays off, because we don’t lose. Except when we do. Sometimes we lose. Full transparency. 

But not this week! Read below for our NFL Week 14 best bets for the 1:00 games. 

All odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 12/10


Jack's Best Bets

Fly Baby!

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7, o/u 45)

The first time I looked at this game, I thought the easiest play would be the Giants at home catching a full touchdown. Makes sense, right? The Giants are 8-4 ATS this season. The game is a division rivalry that promises to be close. Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles rank 22nd in DVOA in run defense, which doesn’t bode well against Saquon Barkley.

I’ve changed my tune.

Whatever struggles the Eagles seem to be having on defense, the Giants are worse. New York ranks 28th in DVOA in rush defense and 28th in DVOA in pass defense.

The Eagles rank 1st in DVOA in rushing offense and 3rd in DVOA in pass offense. Ever since the injury of Adoree Jackson, New York’s most efficient defensive back, the Giants have struggled to stop anyone. 

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can pose problems for this struggling Philly run defense, but the Giants have scored more than 20 points only once this season. This could be a huge day for the Eagles receivers, while the Giants will struggle to keep up.

I don’t trust the Giants offense enough to take the over, so I’m laying the points with Philadelphia. The Giants will begin to fade from playoff contention as the defense continues to struggle. The Eagles are for real. I’ll lay the wood. 

Jack’s Pick

Eagles -7

Nates Hops In

I’ll throw in a bonus play here.

I agree with everything Jack says about the Eagles. They should roll the Giants who, like Icarus, flew too close to the sun and are now crashing back to earth. 

The angle I’ll be on here is the under.

I’ve watched enough of these NFC East divisional games to be able to spot an ugly game. These defenses aren’t wonderful, but both of these teams would prefer to run the ball to keep the clock moving. This should also eliminate those pesky quick scores which usually doom an under bet. 

The clock moves here and Philly plays at a snail’s pace.

Nate's Pick

Under 45 Points


New York Jets at at Buffalo Bills (-10, o/u 43)

These are two elite units on the field with real opportunity to make serious damage in the playoffs. They also have two very different profiles. 

The Bills feature at once the most physically gifted and infuriating quarterback in Josh Allen. He can extend any play with his legs or chuck the rock sixty yards downfield. His favorite target, Stefon Diggs, is having the best year of his career. The defense is getting healthier every week and continues to perform well. This is a Super Bowl contending team. 

The Jets ride their lockdown secondary and respectable run defense to success in low-scoring fist fights. The loss of Breece Hall limited the Jets ability to ride the run game. Zach Wilson’s poor performance and sour attitude caused a QB shakeup and enabled the emergence of Mike White. Everyone has been making The White Lotus jokes as White continues to be a serviceable option. It may implode soon, but for now the Jets are utilizing a conservative game script to stay in the playoff hunt. 

The Jets defense is for real. They rank 4th in DVOA for pass defense. The Bills don’t run the ball and don’t really have a second explosive playmaker after Diggs. The Jets should be able to shut down Diggs enough to keep the points total low and I don’t expect the Jets to score more than 17. I love the under play at 43. I have this game at 41 for a total. That’s two points to play with.

Jack’s Pick

Under 43 Points


Nate's Best Bets

Not So Cowardly Lions

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-1.5, o/u 51.5)

I’m a big believer in this Lions team. We’ll just start there.

The team has been playing much better than their 5-7 record indicates, and it’s clear that everyone is wising up as they are installed as a slight favorite over a red-hot 10-2 Vikings team. 

Detroit’s offense is absolutely humming and the Jags were helpless trying to slow them down last week. I think it’s safe to anticipate that the Lions can score against another suspect defense this week. 

Both of these offenses run through their one stud wide receiver. Jefferson has not been of this world for the Vikings and has a highlight reel after nearly every game. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been just as important for the Lions who stalled out completely when he was injured. 

If we take a look at their respective DVOAs per Football Outsiders, we see that Detroit should be favored as they rank 13th overall, while the Vikings come in at 20th.

This is a perfect confluence of events for me as a team that I’ve been looking to bet is playing a team that I’m not sure is very good. Lions reverse some historical trends against the Vikings and steal a win here.

Nate’s Pick

Lions -1.5

Steel a Game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, o/u 36.5)

I was really high on Baltimore a few weeks ago, but I’m starting to think I may have jumped the gun. The defense is certainly improving, but now Lamar is hurt and this team is playing down to opponents way too much to make me comfortable betting on them. 

Tyler Huntley isn’t terrible, but he’s also not a MVP-caliber quarterback, which is what he's replacing here. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is legitimately nasty with T.J. Watt on the field. When he’s out there, this is a top-5 unit. 

I won’t fault anyone for taking the under here. We know what Pittsburgh’s offense is, and it isn’t scaring many teams. Add in the unknowns surrounding Huntley and his limited NFL appearances, and it's fair to wonder how this game is high-scoring.

Ultimately, I know what I’m getting with the Steelers and it’s a tough team that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. I’ve already had doubts about the Ravens, but those are heightened without Lamar. I think Pittsburgh snags a tough divisional game here.

Nate’s Pick

Steelers -2

Get Me Out of Jacksonville

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, o/u 41)

I’m done with the Jaguars.

They got absolutely destroyed last week by the Lions, and looked horrible in the process. Additionally, T-Law suffered a foot/toe injury which has him listed as questionable.

This is not a game where the Jags can afford for Lawrence to be limited at all.

Ryan Tannehill, for a while, seemed like he was trying to establish residency on the injury list, but he’s finally without a designation for what feels like the first time since 2016. 

I’m not going to put a ton into the beatdown the Eagles put on the Titans. Tough matchup and the Eagles are good.

We’re looking at two teams who were mauled last week, but the caliber of team they played is vastly different.

The Titans are just the better team here and they are angling for another division title. I don’t see the Jags being much more than a speed bump toward that goal. 

Nate’s Pick

Lions -1

Like our NFL Week 14 Best Bets for the 1:00 Games? Read more at Godzilla Wins.

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