NFL WEEK 14 BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - Sunday night caps off with an explosive matchup between the Miami Dolphins (8-4) and the San Diego Chargers (6-6). Earlier in the week it looked as though Tua Tagovailoa might not play, which affected the line tremendously. Tua and Tyreek Hill have been announced as available for this game, causing the line to swing all the back in favor of the Fins. The Chargers will be without key pieces in their defense, including Joey Bosa and Derwin James.
The Dolphins will continue vying for a top spot in the AFC North while the Chargers look to stay alive in the playoff hunt. If you've been tailing us all day, you've had a solid day so far. Let's keep it rolling. Here are some trends for this game.
- Dolphins are 6-6 ATS this season.
- Chargers are 7-5 ATS this season.
- The OVER is 6-6 on Dolphins games this season.
- The OVER is 5-6 on Chargers games this season.
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H total OVER in 9 of their last 11 games this season.
- The Chargers have hit the 2H game total UNDER in 7 of their last 8 games.
- The Chargers have covered the 2Q spread in 14 of their last 17 games.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 12/11
As a card-carrying member of TuAnon, there is only one play for me to make here: Dolphins.
Sure, they might be over valued. The line opened at +5.5 and swung all the way to -3.5 for the Fins. That doesn't matter. The Miami Dolphins offense is built to destroy a team like San Diego.
The Chargers want to play fast, keep their defense off the field, and score, score, score. They haven't been nearly as efficient this year at executing this game script. San Diego will need that efficiency if they plan to keep up with Miami. I don't recommend getting into a pissing contest with the Miami Dolphins. They can and will score. You'll need to stop them on defense and I don't see the Chargers stepping up.
We might be small, but TuAnon is growing. You can find us in quiet corners of humid bars right off the shore. The password? Fidelio.
Set the Trends
The Dolphins are going to play with Tua, Tyreek, and Jalen Waddle, after all three were questionable through practice this week. The Chargers are without Joey Bosa and Derwin James. This should almost certainly hurt the Chargers' ability to slow down the Miami defense.
Last week the Niners stifled Tua by relying on a fierce pass rush that hindered Tua's ability to see his receivers downfield. The Chargers' game script will have to be different as they are without some major playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. It will be hard to come up with key stops in this game. Every third down will count.
The Chargers will be getting Mike Williams back this week and should be able to score. Per Football Outsiders, Miami is ranked 17th in pass DVOA. The Chargers offense plays at a fast clip (25.81) and will need to score if they want to keep up with the Dolphins. Nobody trusts either defense to be very effective tonight.
The over should be the right play here, but the total is too high. There are some other ways to find value in this game. I like three plays. Feel free to spray some money around and hammer all three. Could be a fun little payout:
- Dolphins team total OVER 29.5
- Dolphins team total 1H OVER 14.5
- Chargers +1 2H
The Chargers have covered 7 of their last 8 games in the 2H against the spread. I'm willing to wager that Miami starts strong and hits that over in the first half and then plays more conservatively while San Diego surges. The Dolphins team total is may favorite play, but I'm going to put all three of these in motion and see what comes out the other end.
Dolphins team total OVER 29.5
Dolphins team total 1H OVER 14.5
Chargers +1 2H