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Army vs. Navy Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Army vs Navy Odds, Predictions, and Picks



















The Picks

Nate’s Pick

Navy ML (-155)

Jack’s Pick

Navy ML (-155), u32.5


Kickoff: Saturday, December 10th at 3:00 pm EST

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA


Public Bets: Navy, 53%

Public Money: Navy, 53%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 12/10

Army vs. Navy Odds, Predictions, and Picks

ARMY VS. NAVY ODDS PREDICTIONS AND PICKS - The annual service academy rivalry to end the college football regular season returns to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA for this historic matchup between two programs with incredible tradition. I love watching all of the off-the-field pomp and circumstance here. It's America's game for a reason.

The off-field tradition of excellence is not the only aspect of this game to love. Both teams run the flexbone triple option offense. This means that the clock almost never stops. The defenses are well prepared for this exotic scheme, because they face it in practice every day.  The score is always low. For fans of college football and members of the Pete Rose Church of the Prophets, Degenerates, and Sickos, the game offers a lot of opportunity to make some money.

Some trends to consider:

  • Since 2005, the UNDER in games between service academies has gone 43-9-1.
  • Between Army and Navy, the UNDER is 16-0 in their last 16 meetings.
  • The UNDER has gone 9-0 in the last 9 games between the two academies at Lincoln Financial Field.
  • Navy has covered the spread in their last 15 of 21 games.
  • Navy has covered the 1H spread in their last 6 away games.
  • Army has hit the 1Q game total UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games at home.
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Nate's Best Play

I wouldn’t fault you for wanting to lay the points here, but I’ll pay a little bit extra to lock up the moneyline winner here.

Ultimately, these two teams rate fairly similarly in both metrics, but there are two advantages that put Navy over the edge for me in terms of value.

First, Army hasn’t played or beaten anybody of note. The Black Knights have wins over two FCS schools, and tacked on wins over UL Monroe, UConn, and UMass. That is not exactly a stout schedule or collection of wins.

Navy has played a decent schedule and boasts much better wins over UCF, Temple, Tulsa and East Carolina.

Scheduling edge goes to the Midshipman. They have played and beaten significantly tougher opponents than Army, so an Army win would represent a pretty big step up in performance.

The other angle is rushing defense. Navy sits towards the top of most rushing defense rankings, and Army ranks near the bottom.

With two teams whose identity is to run the ball as much as possible, I’ll take the team with a better run defense playing a team that can’t stop anything on the ground.

Jack isn’t wrong in suggesting the under, which hits at an unreal clip for this series, but let’s spice it up and take the Navy. Shoutout to my grandfather who was a career Navy man. I can’t bet Army here.

Nate’s Pick

Navy ML (-155)

Jack's Best Play

Three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and the point total going under in the Army vs. Navy game. The under has hit in the last 16 meetings between these two teams and it's hit the last 9 times that the game has been played at Lincoln Financial Field.

There are a number of reasons too play the under.

Both teams run the flexbone triple option, so the clock is almost always running. Both teams will run on third and long. Neither team likes to punt very often. Two point conversions are at an absolute premium. The under is set at 32.5 and the last few meetings haven't come anywhere near 32. These teams are built the same way, so the defenses practice against this scheme every day. The under will hit. Don't get cute with this. Take the sure play.

I will also be playing the under for 1Q and 1H. These are easy plays for me that will hit quickly and pad my pocket.

If you do want to get cute, consider Navy ML (-155). Navy has played a better strength of schedule. They have the 16th best run defense in the country. They can score at a quicker pace. Army's defense is ranked 116th and the academy's program just hasn't played a tough schedule. The line opened with Army as the favorite and swung in Navy's favor. The Midshipmen should win, but I'm not comfortable with the 2.5, so I'm taking them at the moneyline.

Jack's Pick

Navy ML and u32.5


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