New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals Pick and Prediction – April 28, 2024

NEW YORK RANGERS VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 28, 2024 — It’s hard to find a playoff game where the result feels like a foregone conclusion, but that’s where we are. After the Rangers came out and throttled the Capitals again in Game 3, it looks like any fight Washington had has been extinguished.

Washington needed to come out strong and build off a fast start in Game 3. The Capitals got the fast start, but they did nothing with it as the Rangers scored the rest of the goals in a 3-1 win. Most disheartening for the Capitals was the power play: the Caps got six chances with a man advantage and converted on a grand total of none of them.

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And now the Rangers have a chance to be the only team to manage a sweep in the first round. The Panthers and Hurricanes both tried and failed to finish off their opponents, so there’s still a glimmer of hope in Washington. But with the Capitals not scoring, the defense a shadow of itself, Alexander Ovechkin a shadow of a shadow and the Rangers controlling the flow of play, it looks pretty bleak. The Rangers are going off at almost -200, and that feels reasonable.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
New York Rangers (58-23-4 SU, 40-45 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	O5.5	-195
Washington Capitals (40-34-11 SU, 42-43 PL)	U5.5	+1.5	U5.5	+160

Puck Drop

When: Sunday, April 28 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 52% on Washington

Public Money: 92% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 28th, 2024

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals In-Season Trends

I tried the Capitals team total under bet in Game 2, and the Rangers let down and allowed three goals in a rare bad night. But I might go back to the well, given that Washington has had no answers for any goaltender, let alone Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers have controlled this series by playing good defense and letting Washington get in its own head.

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The Capitals ranked 28th in goals scored on the season, averaging just 2.6 per night. Down the stretch, they won with defense, as three of their four wins saw them score just two goals and hold on.

Washington hasn’t been all under all the time, but it has certainly played the under regularly, doing so 43 times this season. Another under seems probable, as does a TTU play.

Players to Watch

Mika Zibanejad continues to make his mark on this series, scoring five points in three games to date. Zibanejad really came up big last time out with a pair of assists, including one on the power play that sealed the win for the Blueshirts.

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With nobody from Washington getting much of anything done, the next place to look is Vincent Trocheck of New York. Trocheck was responsible for the power play goal and had an assist shorthanded. Any time you can get two special teams points in a game, you’re doing something right.

The Pick

You never want to write an obituary in the playoffs prematurely, but this one feels pretty close to cooked. Washington was always going to have an uphill climb trying to handle New York in this series. But there was an expectation that the Capitals’ experience could at least make the Rangers work.

Even that seems unlikely now. New York looks to be in firm control of this series, and it would take a lot for Washington to get even one game to go its way. After Carolina and Florida failed to break out the brooms, the Rangers won’t. 

Dan’s Picks

Rangers -1.5  Capitals TTU 1.5 Goals  Mika Zibanejad Over 0.5 Points