Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Pick and Prediction – May 13, 2024

LIVERPOOL VS. ASTON VILLA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 13, 2024 — First comes the bad news for Aston Villa: the Lions are clearly running out of gas. They haven’t played in the UEFA Champions League since winning the thing in 1982, and the pressure of getting back there clearly weighs on them. Plus, fixture congestion is starting to catch up to the Villains.

In addition to making a run at the top four in England, Aston Villa made the semifinals of the UEFA Conference League (third-tier European tournament). That chance at glory left them a bit wiped out, and their recent run of allowing a goal in eight of 10 matches showed it.

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Here’s the good news: Liverpool has nothing to play for. The Reds will want to send Jurgen Klopp out of Anfield with a win, but that’s next week against Wolves. Klopp’s final away match doesn’t carry the same weight, and Liverpool is stuck in third place. The Reds can’t catch Manchester City or Arsenal, and they lead Villa by seven points, too great a margin to lose now.

Plus, even if Villa botches this match, the Lions will still likely get some help from Manchester City on Tuesday. Aston Villa can only lose its Champions League place if it gets one point or less from its final two matches and Tottenham wins its final two matches. Considering Spurs have to play City and its 33-match unbeaten streak (remember, Spurs have to win), Villa’s glory seems safe.

But there’s a difference between clinching in a pub and clinching at home with your fans, especially when said fans have waited 42 years for this day.

Kickoff

Teams: Liverpool (23-4-9, 78 points) vs. Aston Villa (20-9-7, 67 points)

When: Monday, May 13 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Villa Park, Birmingham, United Kingdom

TV: USA

Spread: Liverpool -0.5/Aston Villa +0.5

Moneyline: Liverpool -125/Aston Villa +275/Draw +360

Totals: Over 3.5 (-120)/Under 3.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 13th, 2024 

Scouting Liverpool

Defense, thy name is not Liverpool. Backing both teams to score has been a great way to win money when the Reds are involved. Liverpool hasn’t kept a clean sheet in any of its past nine domestic matches, with the Reds scoring in seven of them. The only time Liverpool’s kept a zero on the scoresheet since March 2 at Nottingham Forest came against Italian side Atalanta.

However, that match with Atalanta in the Europa League doesn’t really count. La Dea had already won the first match 3-0 and had zero incentive to attack, as it would only fail to advance with a loss by at least three goals. When the opponent has motivation, as Villa does, Liverpool’s defense has let down.

Getting Mo Salah on both sides of the scoresheet would help. The Egyptian leads Liverpool in both goals and assists, and he had one of each last time out. When he does both, the Reds have gone 4-0-0 in Premier League matches.

Scouting Aston Villa

Ollie Watkins has had a brilliant season for Villa. He leads the Lions in both goals (19) and assists (10) and has scored in two of Villa’s past three matches.

The big questions for Villa are two. First, was the loss to Brighton and Hove Albion a sign of a tired team, or a team playing on the road with little motivation? Most likely, it’s the latter. Fatigue is a part of the calculation, but playing your last home match makes a big difference. Second, will Leon Bailey be up to the job? Bailey is the Robin to Watkins’ Batman, but he has just one assist and two goals in the past two months. He’s got to step up to bring a win to Villa Park.

Best Bets

Aston Villa Double Chance (+100): Aston Villa has all the motivation in the world to win today, and Liverpool has none. Getting the Villains at even money for either a win or a draw is a gift. I’m just bummed I can’t put it in our daily picks.

If you really want to get risky, taking Villa to win the match at +275 holds a lot of value. I don’t want to lose a good play to a draw when the odds are this good. But I do think Villa takes this match, so go for it if you feel risky.

Over 3.5 Goals (-120): Five of Liverpool’s past seven matches have seen at least four goals scored. Three straight matches at Villa Park have seen at least four goals scored. You can see where this is headed.

Aston Villa 3-1 (+2000): This is where you get risky. Villa, again, has nothing but motivation to win. Liverpool has a weak defense and nothing to play for. The Reds likely breach the Lions’ defense, but Villa should win this and start the celebration.