Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Expert Pick And Predictions – May 12, 2024

DENVER NUGGETS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS—MAY 12, 2024—Happy Mother’s Day, basketball fans. I hope you are having a great weekend. After our earlier look at the Knicks vs. Pacers matchup, the other game from today’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (62-28 SU, 41-47-2 ATS) traveling on the road to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (62-27 SU, 46-42-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into Game 4 and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, May 12, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center,  Minneapolis, MN

TV: TNT

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – Series Recap & Betting Trends

Can The Nuggets Duplicate Their Success From Game 3?

The defending champs were given a reality check by their opponent in the first two games of this series. After a 106-99 loss in the opener, they were defeated by a 26-point  margin (106-80) in Game 2.  It is also worth noting that both games were on their home floor — a venue in which they went 33-8 during the regular season.

Facing an 0-2 deficit on the road is an unenviable task, even if you are the defending champions. But with its back against the wall,  Denver answered the bell with a sorely needed 117-90 in Game 3. Three-time  MVP winner Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray paced the team’s offense.  Jokic finished with 24 points, 14 rebounds (including four on the offensive glass) and nine assists. On top of that, he also had three blocks and three steals.

Murray also scored 24 points (11-for-21 shooting) to go along with five assists and four rebounds. And like his MVP teammate, he also had three steals as well.  Michael Porter Jr. — who tallied a combined 29 points in Games 1 and 2 — put up 21 points while knocking down four of his five attempts from deep.

The Nuggets are now the 30th team in NBA history to drop the first two home games of a playoff series. Only five have rallied to win those series. Could the defending champs become the sixth team to accomplish this feat?

Can The Timberwolves Bounce Back From A Dismal Showing In Game 3?

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves were a perfect 6-0 in the playoffs coming into Game 3. Their success had the home fans chanting, “Wolves in 4!” Instead, the Nuggets proved why they are defending champions, handing Minnesota its first postseason loss. Anthony Edwards scored a team-high 19 points on 8-for-15 shooting from the floor, along with six rebounds and six assists.

Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points and five rebounds, while Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley scored 10 points apiece. Edwards, who is averaging over 30 points per contest in the postseason,  shouldered the blame for his team.

“I’ll take the blame for this loss, Edwards said via ESPN. I came out with no energy at all. I can’t afford to do that for my team. I let my team down, coaches down, fans down,” Edwards said. “I’ll be ready Sunday.”

It is admirable that the team’s superstar is front and center following a 27-point loss. However, he is not the sole reason for the Timberwolves’  recent setback.  Minnesota shot 43.7 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc. This is a noticeable dip from the team’s shooting numbers in Game 2 (50 percent overall and 39.4 percent shooting from the 3-point  line). The Nuggets will need to be much more efficient or risk allowing the Nuggets to regain home-court advantage.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 4 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

Despite dropping Game 3 by a 27-point margin, the Timberwolves are a three-point favorite in Game 4 (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last nine outings against Minnesota.
• The Nuggets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road matchups against the Timberwolves.
• In its last seven contests against Western Conference opponents, Denver is 2-5 against the spread.
• The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings.
• In its last five matchups against Western Conference teams, Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 205.5 points, but the line total has moved to 204 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Nuggets’ last five contests.
• The OVER total holds a 10-5 mark in the Timberwolves’ last 15 games.
• The total has gone OVER six times In Minnesota’s last eight home games.

Prediction: OVER 204 points

Player Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards averaged 35 points per contest through the first two games but produced just 19 points in Game 3, thus making him the key player to watch in this pivotal Game 4. He currently has -118 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -102 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In seven games against the Nuggets this season, Edwards has averaged 27.6 points per contest.
• During the playoffs, he is averaging 30.4 points per outing.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 57 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.0 points per outing.
• The Timberwolves shooting guard averages 26.4 points per game in 18 matchups against Northwest Division opponents,
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 26.5 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 points