New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes Pick and Prediction – April 30, 2024

NEW YORK ISLANDERS VS. CAROLINA HURRICANES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 30, 2024 — The Islanders managed to stave off execution with a double-overtime game winner, but now the real work begins. Getting a win on home ice was a good start for New York, but the Isles now have the task of finding a way to beat Carolina twice in Raleigh.

The Islanders did take a Game 5 off the Hurricanes last year, but that New York team seemed to be a different squad than this one. The Isles actually won more games last season than this year, as this year’s team has excelled at hanging around. That doesn’t work against Carolina, as the Hurricanes have shown through this series.

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It also shouldn’t have worked in Game 4, given how many shots Carolina put on goal. That’s another reason why this doesn’t feel like New York is set to get back in the series: Carolina has controlled all four games to date. The Hurricanes simply didn’t finish the job because of Seymon Varlamov.

A hot goaltender can do a lot for a team, but overcoming a 3-0 deficit usually isn’t part of that. New York still has a long way to go before this turns into a series.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
New York Islanders  (40-30-16 SU, 45-41 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	+205
Carolina Hurricanes (55-23-8 SU, 40-46 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-255

Puck Drop

When: Tuesday, April 30 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh, N.C.

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 91% on Carolina

Public Money: 91% on Carolina

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes In-Season Trends

Even as the Hurricanes have asserted their superiority, they still haven’t put games to bed early. Only one of the teams’ past 10 meetings has been decided by more than two goals, and seven of the past 10 matchups have been decided by just one.

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Carolina’s two-goal margin in Game 1 and Game 2 both came off of empty-net goals in the final two minutes, so the Islanders certainly haven’t been getting blown out in any of these games. And that makes it tough to get value off this series, as the Hurricanes are such a heavy favorite that the value doesn’t exist on the puckline.

Players to Watch

Mathew Barzal came up big for the Islanders in Game 4, as did Bo Horvat. New York doesn’t have anywhere near the depth of Carolina; it’s reliant on its top line taking control of the game and coming up with game-changing plays. Horvat and Barzal did that with a pair of points each to stave off elimination.

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Seth Jarvis continues to be a problem for the Islanders, as he scored a power-play goal in Game 4 and now has four points in the series. He’s showing that his 67-point campaign in his third year was no fluke, and given his nose for goal on the power play, the Islanders have to know where he is at all times when they take penalties.

The Pick

This is tough to pick because of the lack of value on the Hurricanes. There’s a chance that Carolina blows out New York, but it seems unlikely given the way the first four games have gone. What’s more likely is Carolina getting a slim lead and holding on at the end. That would mean either sealing the series with another empty netter or simply running out the clock on the Islanders.

If you want to get value on this game, you’ll have to play the puckline, but I don’t like that risk here. This is one where the smart move is to just back the Hurricanes and take the win. 

Dan’s Picks

Hurricanes ML   Under 5.5 Goals