Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Pick and Prediction – April 30, 2024

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS. BOSTON BRUINS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 30, 2024 — Are the Leafs already finished? Boston has taken full control of this series and kept Toronto from doing much of anything it wants. Everything the Leafs try, the Bruins seem to have an answer for.

When the Maple Leafs try to get the play into the attacking zone, the Bruins have intercepted their passes. When Toronto gets pucks into its preferred shooting areas, the Bruins have been there to get in the way and block shots. Even when the Leafs find space and get the puck in a good shooting spot, Boston’s had an answer in the person of goaltender Jeremy Swayman.

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And that has the Leafs on the brink of yet another first-round exit. Toronto looked like it had buried the Curse of the Senators last year when it made it through the first round for the first time since 2004, but the Leafs look like they’re right back where they started.

Actually, it might be even worse than that. Toronto might also have to play this game without star Auston Matthews, who appears down with illness. While there’s always the potential for a Willis Reed-style showing from the rest of the team, it’s going to take something major for the Leafs to extend their season, with or without Matthews.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs  (47-29-10 SU, 32-54 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	+155
Boston Bruins  (50-21-15 SU, 41-45 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-185

Puck Drop

When: Tuesday, April 30 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: TD Garden, Boston

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 58% on Toronto

Public Money: 89% on Boston

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins In-Season Trends

For all the talk about trends and totals that usually accompanies these matchups, only one stat really matters here. The special teams difference has been ridiculous, and it’s why Boston has had an easy time of it. The Maple Leafs have gone 1-for-14 with the man advantage; the Bruins are 6-for-13 with the power play.

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Toronto hasn’t come close to stopping Boston with the man advantage. The Bruins have scored on the power play in every game this series, and you’d have to go back to Dec. 2023 to find a game where Boston didn’t score on the power play against Toronto.

If the Leafs can’t find a way to either jump start their own power play or slow down Boston’s, they simply have no chance in this series.

Players to Watch

David Pastrnak has been very consistent for Boston in this series, and he’s making a strong case for backing him to score a point every single night. He’s scored seven points in his past seven games, with the last five being part of a point streak that now spans five games.

With Matthews questionable, someone else needs to step up for the Leafs to make this a series. John Tavares has just one point to his name, and it came via a goal. Someone needs to pick up the scoring if Matthews can’t go.

The Pick

Toronto hasn’t really shown anything to suggest it is capable of turning this around. The Maple Leafs seem almost out of ideas with how to combat what Boston does well. With Matthews sidelined, things are getting no better in Canada’s largest city.

The worry with Boston is that it was here before against Florida. This year, the Bruins are waiting for a rematch with the Panthers. That should have them focused fully on beating the Leafs. 

Dan’s Picks

Bruins -1.5   Under 5.5 Goals