NC State vs. Purdue Expert Pick and Prediction – April 6, 2024 

NC STATE VS. PURDUE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 6, 2024 — It’s been 41 years since NC State made its magical run to the national championship, and once again, the Wolfpack find themselves at the Final Four in the Southwest against almost impossible odds.

This time, they’re in Arizona instead of New Mexico and facing a Purdue team that has shooters and makes its foul shots. And there’s a shot clock, making it even less likely that State’s going to pull off the upset. But nobody expected State to get this far in the first place, and they do have one thing in their favor: Purdue has fallen to a double-digit seed in three consecutive tournaments.

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But this Boilermakers squad looks like a juggernaut. In addition to two-time national player of the year Zach Edey, Purdue has confident shooters and solid defensive playmakers. The Boilers also have depth at their disposal, taking away one advantage State has used through this tournament.

State’s also working against history here. Over the course of the NCAA tournament, eight teams seeded No. 9 or lower have made it to college basketball’s ultimate stage. Not one of them has gone on to the championship game. The last ones to make it, Florida Atlantic and UCLA, both came within a basket, but ultimately came up short. Can State turn the tables?

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
NC State (26-14 SU, 20-19-1 ATS)	O146	+9	O146	+340
Purdue (33-4 SU, 21-15-1 ATS)	-8.5	-9	U146	-440

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, April 6 at 6:10 p.m. EST 

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 64% on NC State 

Public Money: 71% on NC State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 5th, 2024

NC State vs. Purdue In-Season Trends 

Nothing in how the Wolfpack finished the season suggested this was possible. A month ago, Kevin Keatts arrived in Washington for Day 1 of the ACC tournament, knowing that a loss to Louisville would likely mean the end of his time in Raleigh. His team had lost five of its final six and given up at least 79 points in all of them.

And yet, State’s defense has been steel. Ironically, the only team to crack 76 on the Wolfpack in their past nine games has been that terrible Louisville squad. Since then, State has put on a defensive clinic. Only North Carolina forced an over without the help of overtime.

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Purdue appears on a mission. The Boilers didn’t seem bothered by losing the Big Ten tournament semifinal to Wisconsin because they’d been there, done that. The only thing they cared about was getting to the Final Four and redeeming the Fairleigh Dickinson loss from last year. Now they’re here, and they’ve gone through their region like a knife through butter. All four games have been covers. Only Tennessee has kept things close. Purdue’s held all of its opponents to 68 or less.

The Difference-Makers 

The matchup everyone wants to see is DJ Burns against Zach Edey. That could turn problematic for State, because Burns might not have the ability to keep Edey contained without fouling. State usually does a good job keeping opposing teams off the foul line, but the Wolfpack haven’t seen anyone all year like Edey. There isn’t really anyone like him, and the Wolfpack have to find a way to keep him from taking over.

As great as Burns has been, the other DJ, DJ Horne, is even more important to the Wolfpack’s efforts. Purdue does a great job of taking away good shooters, and Horne has been State’s most important scorer on most nights. The Wolfpack need to find a way to get Horne some good looks.

The Pick 

Most times, when a low seed gets to this level, they’re out of juice. Nobody’s taking them lightly, and the team on the other side is ready to come out and make a statement.

Purdue has been in make a statement mode from the beginning of the tournament. The Boilers don’t want to leave anything to chance in this game. I don’t think they will.

Dan’s Picks

Purdue -9.5    Under 146