Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Pick and Prediction – April 25, 2024

FLORIDA PANTHERS VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 25, 2024 — The first two games in Sunrise have proven two things. First, Florida’s defense is as good as advertised. Not only have the Panthers held Tampa Bay to two goals in each of the first two games, but they’ve only allowed 42 shots total. The Lightning don’t generate a ton of shots, but they’re a high-scoring team, and they’re not getting chances right now.

Second, special teams are ruling this series. Out of 10 goals scored in Sunrise, four of them came on the power play. Both teams came through once with the man advantage in each game, and that’s been the case in four consecutive meetings between the teams. That’s a major problem for Tampa Bay, because Florida’s power play isn’t supposed to be as good as the Lightning’s.

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The Panthers’ power play is nothing to scoff at, scoring 23.5% of the time to rank eighth in the league. But the Lightning led the league in power play percentage at 28.6%, and that was supposed to be their one advantage in this series. If Florida’s playing special teams to a draw, it’s hard to see a path back for Tampa Bay.

It’s also hard to see a path back given how the Panthers have dominated the Lightning as of late. In the past seven meetings, six of them have gone to Florida, including all three in Tampa. In all six wins, the Lightning have scored two goals or less. For a team that ranked fifth in the league in goals, that’s no way to win games.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Florida Panthers  (54-24-6 SU, 41-43 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	-105
Tampa Bay Lightning (45-30-9 SU, 42-42 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-115

Puck Drop

When: Thursday, April 25 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Fla.

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 97% on Tampa Bay

Public Money: 60% on Tampa Bay

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 25th, 2024

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning In-Season Trends

Both games in this series have finished with the same 3-2 scoreline, but it’s been Florida’s defense that has really carried the day. The one win for the Lightning in seven tries saw them light the lamp five times. Other than that, it’s been a series of low outputs for Tampa Bay.

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The Panthers are riding a string of strong defensive efforts that’s basically carried them through April. The 23rd marked their eighth straight game of allowing two goals or less in regulation. As you might expect, the under has cashed six times with one push over their past eight games.

Players to Watch

Steven Stamkos has shown up for Tampa Bay, but Nikita Kucherov has to start shooting the puck. He’s taken just three shots this series, and while he’s contributed two assists, Tampa Bay needs more from its top scorer. Kucherov had 44 goals in the regular season along with 100 assists, but he’s not going to get anything goal-wise if he doesn’t start shooting.

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Florida’s big three of Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett have all stepped up nicely in this series. Tkachuk has been the most consistent, but all three have points on the power play. Bennett is out for this game, but either of the other two would make for a good prop bet.

The Pick

Tampa Bay isn’t having the same problems it did last year with Toronto, but it seems to be having a different set of problems. The Lightning have been so good for so long that they’re at the tail end of their window. This team seems to be out of gas at the postseason and likely needs a reset if it’s going to get back to chasing a Cup.

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Florida is the sharper and hungrier team, has no fear of the Lightning and no fear of going to Tampa. Remember, the Lightning went 0-3 last year against the Maple Leafs on home ice. Florida’s won three straight in Tampa anyway and knows it can handle this attack. The Panthers should get to a 3-0 cushion here. 

Dan’s Picks

Panthers ML  Under 5.5 Goals