Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights Pick and Prediction – April 27, 2024

DALLAS STARS VS. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 27, 2024 — Sometimes, the way you play in the regular season genuinely matters, and Dallas is finding that out the hard way. The Golden Knights have received plenty of criticism for how they’ve creatively managed their cap space, but there’s no finding fault with how they’ve managed this series.

Put simply, there’s a reason that Dallas has lost nine of 11 to Vegas and five times this season against the Golden Knights. The Stars couldn’t handle the Golden Knights last season in the Western Conference finals, and the same thing appears to be happening again. Vegas keeps forcing Dallas to play its physical game, and the Stars aren’t built to play that way.

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The Stars do have one thing in their favor: they were the best road team in the NHL this season. They now have to win two out of three games in Vegas just to have a chance to win the series. They did get one last season after falling behind 0-3, but the Golden Knights were never really in danger of losing the series. Vegas has played outstanding hockey at home and now sees a real opportunity to put a chokehold on this series. Dallas has to find a way to dictate the flow of the game and force Vegas to play its style.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Dallas Stars  (52-23-9 SU, 36-48 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	-113
Vegas Golden Knights (47-29-8 SU, 40-44 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-106

Puck Drop

When: Saturday, April 27 at 10 p.m. EST

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 68% on Vegas

Public Money: 64% on Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 27th, 2024

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights In-Season Trends

The Stars thought they could ride Jake Oettinger throughout the playoffs based on how well he finished the regular season. While it hasn’t been Oettinger’s fault that the Stars are down 0-2, the fact remains that Vegas has done more against Oettinger than most teams did. Down the stretch, the under cashed eight times in nine games, in part because Oettinger only gave up more than three goals one time.

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Vegas has been far less consistent. The Golden Knights have gone 6-3-1 to the over in their past 10 games, and the offense has done most of the work. Only twice in their past 10 games has Vegas failed to score at least three goals.

Players to Watch

Few people know what it takes to win at this level better than Jonathan Marchessault. The original Golden Knight hero is once again stepping up in the postseason, lighting the lamp in each of the two games in Dallas. He and Jack Eichel have both proven a nightmare for the Stars to try to stop, scoring a combined seven points in this series.

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Jason Robertson has done the job at the other end for the Stars, but Joe Pavelski has not. At this point, scoring from Robertson and Pavelski needs to be a given, with Jamie Benn being a luxury. Instead, Benn has tied Robertson for the most points on Dallas’ roster in the playoffs. That might have been great a few years back, but in this series, it’s not enough for the Stars.

The Pick

The value is still with Vegas. People don’t want to believe that the Stars aren’t going to make this a series, not after the year that Dallas had in the regular season.

But there’s little indication that Vegas is going to let Dallas into this series. The Golden Knights have punished every error and made it clear that they don’t intend to let anyone take the Cup from them without a fight. This was always a bad matchup for the Stars, and it might end far sooner than anyone expected. 

Dan’s Picks

Golden Knights ML   Over 5.5 Goals