Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Expert Pick And Predictions – May 9, 2024

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS – MAY 9, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the intriguing matchups on tap tonight features the Dallas Mavericks (54-35 SU, 52-37 ATS) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (62-25 SU, 50-36-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into Game 2 of this Western Conference semifinal matchup.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, May 9, 2024 @ 9:30 PM ET

Where: Paycom Center,  Oklahoma City, OK

TV: ESPN

 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks (54-35 SU, 52-37 ATS)	+5	+5	O218.5	+164
Oklahoma City Thunder (62-25 SU, 50-36-1 ATS)	U218.5	-5	U218.5	-198

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – Series Recap & Betting Trends

Can A Hobbled Luka Doncic Help Guide The Mavs To A Game 2 Win?

While some media outlets focused on the OKC Thunder being the youngest team in NBA history to clinch a No.1 seed, what was somewhat overlooked is that the Mavericks have advanced past the first round only twice since they won it all back in 2011. Furthermore, Luka Dončić has been hindered by a sprained knee.

In the series finale against the LA Clippers, he was 9-for-26 from the field and 1-for-10 from beyond the arc while committing five turnovers. Unfortunately for the Mavericks,  he did not fare much better against the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. He finished 6-for-19 from the field and connected on just one of his eight attempts from the 3-point line.

Although this was not the only reason for the team’s 117-95 loss against OKC, it was certainly a contributing factor.

“Just gotta move on to the next one,” Dončić said via CBS Sports. “I’ve gotta be better. We’ve gotta be better. We gotta focus. They’re a great team, a great defensive team, so it’s not going to be easy at all.”

To echo Dončić’s point, Dallas was just 39.3 percent from the field and connected on just 12 of its 35 attempts from distance (34.3 percent). Needless to say, if the Mavericks cannot improve those numbers, they will be facing a 0-2 deficit heading back home.

Can The Thunder Extend Their Postseason Win Streak To Six Games?

The Thunder opened their postseason with a narrow 94-92 victory against the New Orleans Pelicans. However, they went on to sweep the Pels in four games. After the Mavericks finally got past the Clippers for the first time in three tries, they were viewed as a much tougher opponent for the up-and-coming Thunder. Obviously, this group did not get the memo as they rolled to a 22-point victory in the series opener.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 29 points on 8-for-19 shooting from the field. He also had nine rebounds and nine assists while hitting 11 of 13 attempts from the free-throw line.

Chet Holmgren had a nice outing with 19 points, seven rebounds, and three blocked shots, while Jalen Willaims contributed 18 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Although OKC was pounded on the boards to the tune of 52-39, this young squad recorded 29 assists on 40 made field goals.

“I thought we got a good groove going after kind of a choppy start,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said after the game. “Really intelligent attacks. We had a good blend of aggression and also taking what the defense gave us, keeping them on their heels, keeping the ball ahead of them. They’re really good when you slow down and you allow them to kind of scheme and calibrate.”

The Thunder landed the first punch (and a good one) in the series opener. Now it is time to see how or if the road team will respond in Game 2.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 2 showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Thunder were a 3.5-point favorite going into Game 1. Following their 22-point blowout win over the Mavericks, they are a 5.5-point favorite for Game 2 (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks have covered the spread at a 70 percent clip in their last 20 games, going 14-6 over that stretch.
• Dallas has an ATS record of 2-9 in its last 11 matchups against OKC.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road outings against the Thunder.
• Dallas is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 games against teams in the Northwest division.
• Meanwhile, the Thunder have covered the spread eight times in their last nine outings.

The Thunder have been favored by five points or more 37 times this season. In those contests, they are 23-14 against the spread. Given these trends, look for OKC to cover the spread again.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 218.5 points, but the line total has moved to 218 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 14 times in the Mavericks’ last 20 games.
• The UNDER total is 13-5 in Dallas’s last 18 games against Western Conference opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Thunder’s last six games.
• In OKC’s last seven matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, the UNDER total is 6-1.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last five Tuesday night games.

Prediction: UNDER 218 points

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Player Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in the MVP voting. He led his team with 29 points in Game 1, making him my key player to watch in Game 2. He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the regular season and playoffs, he is averaging 29.9 points per game in 80 appearances.
• In five games against the Mavericks this season (including the playoffs), Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 23.4 points per contest, which is a noticeable six points below his projected points total in this contest.
• During the postseason, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.6 points per outing.
• SGA has played against Western Conference teams 54 times this season. He has averaged 29.6 points per outing in those contests.
• In 22 matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, OKC’s point guard averages 26.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 26.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per contest but has exceeded the points total for this matchup only twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 29.5 points

James Tillman’s Mavericks vs. Thunder Picks

Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Over/Under: UNDER 218 points Player Prop Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 29.5 points