Colorado vs. Boise State Expert Pick and Prediction – March 20, 2024

COLORADO VS. BOISE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – MARCH 20, 2024 – The Mountain West got done pretty dirty by the committee and the lack of respect is evident all over the bracket. Boise State having to work their way into the field of 64 through the play-in game is downright disrespectful to a team that ranked 39th in KenPom and 26th in the NET rankings. 

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Things don’t get any better for the Broncos as they get matched up against another woefully underseeded team as Colorado surged to 26th in KenPom and 25th in the NET after going 5-1 in March with two wins in the Pac-12 tournament. 

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Colorado (24-10 SU)	-2.5	-2.5	O140.5	-142
Boise State (23-10 SU)	U140.5	+2.5	U140.5	+120

Tipoff 

When: Wednesday, March 20 at 8:10 p.m. EST 

Where: University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, Ohio

TV: truTV

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 17th, 2024

Colorado Buffaloes

The Buffs are a team that is going to find ways to score. They have a top-25 offense byu most metrics and they excel at shooting 3s. Strong guard play and crashing the glass are the hallmarks of this team. 

If Colorado makes a run in the tournament, KJ Simpson will likely be the catalyst as he comes into the postseason shooting 45% from 3 and nearly 90% from the free throw line. 

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We’ve seen what teams can do with one dynamic playmaker in these one-and-done settings, so teams will need to keep an eye on him. 

Shooting from beyond the arc can be notoriously fickle and difficult to predict in small samples, but a team that has been reliable all season should continue to do so.

Boise State Broncos

Boise comes into this tournament having limped through March with a couple nice wins over tournament teams New Mexico and SDSU. They also mixed in two losses to Nevada and a loss to New Mexico in the MW tournament. 

This is a hard-nosed defensive minded team that tries to take care of the little things to be successful. Degenhart and Stanley down low are a tough matchup for any team and the Broncos aren’t going to be outrebounded by many teams.

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Rebounding is typically important in tournament settings because it limits opponents’ possessions, while increasing a team’s own chances if they get after offensive boards. 

There is a path for Boise to dominate down low if they can force some early foul trouble for Colorado’s big men. 

The Pick

These teams are about equal when it comes to corralling missed shots, and Boise really needs to have an advantage in that area to hope for an upset.

I think the guard play of Colorado will likely be the difference maker as Boise has struggled to find a reliable ball handler in their unit.

Guard play and rebounding are two of my big keys when I’m looking for lower-seeded teams poised to make a run. I just don’t see as many paths to victory for the Broncos.

It’s worth noting that the committee may have been right in assigning a flurry of lower-seeds to the Mountain West. Since 2016, the conference is 7-16 against the spread in the Big Dance. Aside from SDSU’s miracle run last year, the conference has largely underperformed. This is probably another quick exit.

Nate’s Picks

Colorado -2.5