Nevada vs. Dayton Expert Pick – March 21, 2024

NEVADA VS. DAYTON EXPERT PICK – MARCH 21, 2024 – The first 7-10 matchup is between the Dayton Flyers and the Nevada Wolfpack. The Flyers must travel to Salt Lake City, which is right in Nevada’s backyard. They are in the West Region, which could benefit the Wolfpack.

The game will begin on TBS at 4:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, and the team favored by the oddsmakers may surprise you. Check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page.

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The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Nevada (26-7 SU)	O136.5	-1.5	O136.5	-122
Dayton (24-7 SU)	+1.5	+1.5	U136.5	+102

Tipoff 

When: Thursday, March 21 at 3:30 pm EST 

Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City

TV: TBS

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 18th, 2024

Nevada vs. Dayton Head-To-Head

The no. 7 seed Dayton Flyers lost their first game in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament to the eventual winner, Duquesne. The Flyers were the third seed, which earned them a double-bye into the quarterfinals, but could not beat Dukes at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

They went 14-4 in conference play but struggled a little down the home stretch. Dayton lost three games in their final 10 regular season games and then dropped their first game in the tournament. They have two victories over teams in the tournament, Oakland and Grambling State, 14 and 16 seeds, respectively.

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Nevada earned a bid to the dance as a no. 10 seed. They also lost their first game in the Mountain West Conference tournament against Colorado State.

They received a bye as the two-seed in the Mountain West but could not progress past the quarterfinals. Six teams got selected in the 68 tournament teams, including New Mexico, who earned the automatic bid by winning the Mountain West tournament as a six seed. New Mexico was the last team to beat Nevada in the regular season before the Wolfpack went on a seven-game winning streak to close it out.

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Nevada vs. Dayton In-Season Trends

Dayton’s offense relies on the three-ball more than most teams, but everything starts inside with DaRon Holmes II. He is their best player on both sides of the ball. He averages 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game.

The problem with the Flyers is their lack of depth. Six players play the majority of minutes, with them averaging 28.5 or more minutes per game. The next highest player plays 8.6 minutes per game. The Flyers score 38.2% of their points from behind the arc, which ranks 22nd in the nation. Nevada holds their opponents to 31.2% from three, which could damper Dayton’s offense. The Wolfpack does allow 23 three-point attempts per game, so they must emphasize closing out on shooters.

Nevada’s advantages in this matchup are their height and experience. They are the 61st-ranked team in average height and seventh in experience, according to KenPom. The Wolfpack’s leaders are guards Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas. Blackshear is 6’6’’ and averages 15.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, which may give Dayton a lot of fits.

Both teams are slow-paced, which could lead to a back-and-forth style game. The spread is near a pick ‘em, with Nevada favored by one point. The total is 137 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so the oddsmakers also believe this will be a close, slow-paced game.

The Pick

Nevada is the fourth-best team ATS in the tournament, with a 21-11 record against the spread. Dayton’s record ATS is 15-15-1, so oddsmakers have been pretty accurate in determining their spreads. I will give two picks for this game because of the slow pace on both sides of the ball. Nevada’s experience and depth should help them down the stretch of this game, which could be low-scoring, especially if Dayton is not shooting their average 40.2% from three.

Trent’s Picks

Nevada -1  UNDER 137