Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Expert Pick and Prediction – March 22, 2024 

TEXAS A&M VS. NEBRASKA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 22, 2024 — Is this finally Nebraska’s time to end the most infamous drought in college basketball? The Cornhuskers are the only Power 6 team who has never won an NCAA tournament game, having failed on all seven previous attempts.

But this might be the Huskers’ best shot to end the streak. First, Nebraska comes into this game with plenty of momentum, having won seven of their past nine contests going into this game. Second, they face an opponent where they know the blueprint for how to win this game.

Last year, league rival Penn State faced Texas A&M in the first round and ran the Aggies off the court, using the specific blueprint of keeping the Aggies off the free throw line and limiting their offensive rebounding. Over the course of 40 minutes, the Nittany Lions dared Texas A&M to match them shot for shot, and the Aggies couldn’t come close.

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A year later, Texas A&M hasn’t decided to do anything different. The Aggies are still almost entirely dependent on getting offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line. Texas A&M remains a terrible jump-shooting team, which plays right into Nebraska’s hands. The Huskers allow plenty of shots, but they don’t allow teams to hit very often.

Nebraska boasts the lowest opposing field goal percentage in the Big Ten at just 39.7%, and only five teams in the field of 68 (Houston, Auburn, McNeese, Tennessee and Morehead State) hold teams to a lower percentage. As for free throw shooting? Among Big Ten teams, only Purdue gives up fewer foul shot attempts per game. Once again, the Aggies seem to have drawn the wrong matchup for their strengths.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Texas A&M (20-14 SU, 16-18 ATS)	O145	+1	O147.5	+100
Nebraska (23-10 SU, 21-12 ATS)	-1.5	-1	U147.5	-110

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 22 at 6:50 p.m. EST 

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tenn.

TV: TNT

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 18th, 2024

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska In-Season Trends 

The Aggies head into this game on a five-game over streak, which is why the total keeps pushing higher. That’s different from last season, where they came in with four unders in their final five.

What isn’t different is that A&M comes in having covered five of their past six. However, A&M finished the year with Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi. None of those teams rank in the top 100 at keeping teams off the line, which plays into A&M’s hands.

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Nebraska is one of the most predictable teams in the nation when it comes to its spread results. The Huskers have won 23 games, and they’re 20-3 ATS in those contests. The only spread losses came against Rider, Cal State Fullerton and North Dakota, and those only because they were facing double digit spreads. Otherwise, Nebraska’s been highly reliable.

The Difference-Makers 

Wade Taylor remembers the Penn State loss all too well. Last year in Des Moines, Taylor shot 2-for-15 from the floor and 1-for-10 from the 3-point arc as the Aggies quickly fell behind and never recovered. There’s no question that Taylor has to be better if the Aggies are to stand any chance in this game.

Keisei Tominaga gets a lot of attention, and for good reason. The Japanese guard is easily Nebraska’s most important player, and ever since he established himself last year, the Huskers have been a tough out. His shooting disappeared on him against Illinois, which led directly to Nebraska falling apart in the game’s final five minutes.

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Since a January 12 loss at Iowa, Nebraska’s fortunes have been almost directly tied to Tominaga’s shooting. Over the past 16 games, Nebraska is 10-1 when Tominaga shoots at least 45% and 0-5 when he fails to hit that number.

The Pick 

If Texas A&M’s not getting to the line, it has to get offensive rebounds. If it’s not doing either one, it’s incredibly easy to best the Aggies.

I don’t think Nebraska’s going to give A&M the chances it needs to succeed. The Huskers don’t send teams to the line unless they have to foul, and they just battled Illinois and Coleman Hawkins to a near-draw on the boards in the Big Ten tournament.

This seems just like last season, where A&M is going to have to win a shot-making contest against a Big Ten opponent that knows how to score. And just like last year, that’s probably not a game the Aggies can win. This should end the Nebraska streak.

Dan’s Picks

Nebraska -1    Under 147.5