Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 27

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 27 – This week’s ‘Super Sunday’ double header focuses completely on what remains an enthralling fight for survival. Amongst the four teams here, two are at risk of being cut adrift inside the bottom-two.

Finishing there guarantees relegation to the second-tier (2. Bundesliga), while a finish of 16^th results in a limbo-like existence, where the team finishing there must win a playoff against the third-placed side of the second division to stay as a Bundesliga side.

On current form though, the visitors in our first featured game would likely be grateful even for an opportunity to duel in the last-chance saloon…

VfL Bochum (14th) vs VfB Stuttgart (18th)

Date: Sunday, 04/09/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: VfL Bochum – Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | VfL Bochum (DWWLL) | VfB Stuttgart (LLDLL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Frankfurt 1-1 VfL Bochum | | Union Berlin 3-0 VfB Stuttgart |

Head to Head

VfB Stuttgart	4-1	VfL Bochum	10/15/2022	Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart	1-1	VfL Bochum	02/19/2022	Bundesliga
VfL Bochum	0-0	VfB Stuttgart	09/26/2021	Bundesliga
VfL Bochum	0-1	VfB Stuttgart	02/17/2020	2. Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart	2-1	VfL Bochum	09/02/2019	2. Bundesliga

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +185 | TIE: +230 | AWAY: +130 |

Prop Bet: | Goal between 61-75’ (+140) | 

Tips

• All of Bochum’s last six games won or lost have seen the winner get a shutout.
• Four of Bochum’s previous five wins have seen them score exactly one second-half goal.
• None of the hosts’ last four home games have seen a goal before the 30^th minute.
• Stuttgart have failed to score before the hour mark in their last five matches.
• All of Stuttgart’s last four away defeats have seen exactly three match goals.
• Of Stuttgart’s last ten Bundesliga road trips, seven (70%) saw both teams score.

The Word

While their class of 2014/15 is the only team across the past decade to survive after being bottom going into matchweek 27, Stuttgart have it all to do. Back in early March, the month to come was identified as a possible killer for the Swabians, and a 1-1 draw with European spot chasers Frankfurt is the only thing that comes close to a shining beacon of their potential in a drab spring so far.

That can only swing the pendulum in the direction of Bochum, who enter a league match as favorites for only the third time this campaign. They’ve won and lost one each of the previous two applicable Bundesliga battles, and if they’re to put that into positive territory, Erhan Mašović could play a role, having netted three of Bochum’s last four open-play goals scored during victories.

PREDICTION: BOCHUM 2 – 1 STUTTGART (+750)

 

March 18, 2023 – Erhan Mašović wins it for Bochum in their latest home game.

 

Hoffenheim (15th) vs Schalke (17th)

Date: Sunday, 04/09/2023 at 01:30 PM EST

Pitch: Hoffenheim – PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Hoffenheim (WWLLL) | Schalke (LDDWW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Werder Bremen 1-2 Hoffenheim | | Schalke 0-3 Leverkusen |

Head to Head

Hoffenheim	5-1	Schalke	10/18/2022	DFB-Pokal
Schalke	0-3	Hoffenheim	10/14/2022	Bundesliga
Hoffenheim	4-2	Schalke	05/08/2021	Bundesliga
Schalke	4-0	Hoffenheim	01/09/2021	Bundesliga
Schalke	1-1	Hoffenheim	03/07/2020	Bundesliga

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -110 | TIE: +270 | AWAY: +245 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT: Tie/Hoffenheim (+400) | 

Tips

• Five of Hoffenheim’s last six matches have separated the teams by just one goal.
• All but two of Hoffenheim’s previous seven victories have seen them score 3+ times.
• Hoffenheim have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last nine home league games.
• Each of Schalke’s previous three games have seen them concede the opening goal.
• Four of the Royal Blues’ last six wins have seen them score inside the first 15 minutes.
• None of the last ten Bundesliga head-to-head battles have seen both sides score before halftime.

The Word

Back in October, Hoffenheim cruised to a brace of landslide victories over Schalke. The visitors have improved since being wasted 3-0 in the reverse fixture, but we’re backing the ‘Kraichgauer’ to complete a treble over the Royal Blues and open up some real daylight between themselves and the dreaded drop zone.

That’s also because it takes a lot of character to overturn an eight-match losing run with successive victories, and the return to form of Andrej Kramarić – with three goals across Hoffenheim’s two preceding wins – will be key if the Sinsheim outfit are to stay in the top-flight.

In particular, the Croatian hitman’s influence is plain to see when we consider that he accounts for over a fifth (22.9%) of Hoffenheim’s grand total of league goals scored since the start of his first full season there (2016/17). There’s also the fact that Schalke’s victory at Bochum in early March is their sole triumph in 40 Bundesliga away games!

PREDICTION: HOFFENHEIM 2 – 0 SCHALKE (+750)

 

Saturday’s Big Tip

RB Leipzig to beat Hertha Berlin 2-0 (+550)

Depending on what happens the day before, Hoffenheim and Bochum could end the weekend (respectively) six and seven points clear of the bottom three. For that to happen, RB Leipzig firstly must beat Hertha Berlin in Saturday’s late game – a small task on the pure basis of them winning nine of their last ten battles against the troubled Olympiastadion outfit.

Hertha’s only saving grace could be home form, as they are unbeaten in three matches on their own turf. It’s mostly been a case of all-or-nothing in the capital lately, with their last five home games to be won or lost coming by a margin of multiple goals.

As for Leipzig, they will be desperate to bounce back after a shock 3-0 loss at home to 2023’s form team Mainz, making it 11 goals conceded in just three outings overall. Meanwhile, a majority (three) of their last five Bundesliga away wins have seen them by 3+ goals!

All prices accurate as of April 4, 2023. Statistics do not include friendly games.