Will Georgia Dominate Ole Miss in a Top-10 Showdown?

ATHENS, Georgia – And then there was one. The final remaining team in the SEC that UGA’s most recent game against was a loss, dating back to 2016. Ole Miss.

Kirby Smart’s first year at UGA he lost to Hugh Freeze’s Rebels and now the Dawg will be looking to avenge that defeat against Lane Kiffin’s 9th ranked squad.

This year’s game feels similar to last year’s Tennessee game. Late in the season, top 10 matchup, an offense that people aren’t sure UGA will be able to stop, cold and possibly wet weather. This game is all about matchups and execution as there are multiple key dynamics in play.

Here are the deciding factors in this game.

Related: Dan’s Michigan vs. Penn State Expert Pick

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Ole Miss (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS)	+11.5	+10.5	O58.5	+340
Georgia (9-0 SU, 1-7 ATS)	o58.5	+10.5	U58.5	-450

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 11th at 7:00 EDT

Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA

TV: ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 10th, 2023

Ole Miss Runnin’ Rebels

Two-Headed Monster

Quinshon Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV make the most dangerous running back tandem in the SEC. Judkins is healthy and never gets brought down easily. Despite being limited early in the season, he already has 12 touchdowns.

Bentley doesn’t get nearly as many carries as Judkins, but he’s averaging almost 6 yards each time he totes the rock. Plus, QB Jaxon Dart isn’t afraid to take off and run either. He’ll have designed run plays for him throughout the game and has scored 7 times on the ground this season. At 6’3, 220lbs, he’s also a load of bring down.

Georgia has struggled to stop mobile QBs so far this year and Dart will be their biggest test thus far. Plus, they’ll be missing their best run defender in Jamon Dumas-Johnson. He broke his arm last game, and UGA will miss not just his skill set, but also his leadership. He’s the guy who makes sure UGA is lined up right each game, and he’ll likely be replaced with a freshman.

CJ Allen has been the primary back up later in the year, but Xavian Sorey should get some playing time too. Both are more athletic than Dumas-Johnson, but not as consistent in their play. Allen is a rare combination of size and speed. But with a running game that uses misdirections and a back that’s shifty and breaks tackles, Allen can’t be hesitant like he has been thus far. He’s got to know his assignment and blow up plays. If he waits, UGA will get punished in this game. Plus, he’s also got to keep an eye on Dart, containing him.

Rebs Gotta Run

UGA was gashed last week with stretch runs, and all year they have struggled to set the edge. Ole Miss will look to take advantage of this deficiency with their outside runs and jet sweeps. This may be an oversimplification, but if UGA can limit the run game, Ole Miss will not win. If Ole Miss can establish the run, look out.

Ole Miss is a run-first team that looks to punish you with explosive plays. They’ll turn to Tre Harris as their playmaker at receiver. He is their vertical threat that can get you explosive plays, averaging almost 20 yards per catch. He’ll be in the slot and UGA may use the same technique they did against Missouri to stop explosives from the slot by using Kamari Lassiter there. They are more likely to turn to receivers Jordan Watson or Dayton Wade to get the dirty work done.

Lane Train

One of the markers of this Ole Miss offense is their willingness to go for it on 4th downs. Once they cross midfield, expect Ole Miss to go for it. There will be key plays in the game that can swing a ton of points if Ole Miss can convert 4th downs or not.

If UGA can shut down a couple of 4th down plays, Kiffin is in trouble. If Georgia cannot get off the field, and they already struggle defensively in the red zone, it could be a high scoring affair.

Georgia Bulldogs

Home Sweet Home

Sanford Stadium can present a daunting environment to opponents. UGA will need that to be the case again this Saturday. Ole Miss is far, far better of an offensive team at home than on the road the last two years.

The crowd can disrupt some of the pre-snap motion and checks at the line that Ole Miss loves to do. One clear way UGA can limit the Rebels is just by being loud and making the environment miserable for Jaxon Dart and Co. to communicate and time the offense. Ole Miss is already one of the most penalized teams in the country, and the environment could add to false starts and mistakes to set this team in unfavorable down and distance situations.

All of Jaxon Dart’s interceptions have been on the road this year too. Ole Miss has to take the crowd out of this game to succeed.

Disrupting Beck

Last week, Missouri was able to sack Carson Beck 3 times when he had only been sacked 6 times all season up to that point. Beck wasn’t as sharp as he usually is in response.

Ole Miss brings a top-10 pass rush. Because they tend to run a zone defense, they’ll need to get Beck uncomfortable and off his game like last week. If they can end a few drives through sacks or, better still, force a turnover through pressuring Beck, it could change the game.

Cedrick Johnson and Jared Ivey are the two guys most likely to get home against Beck. It’ll be interesting to see how much RT Amarius Mims plays in this game. Supposedly he should be good to go. If he’s healthy and ready, he can shore up the right side of the line where Xavier Truss has had mixed results this season.

LT Earnest Greene has struggled mightily in pass blocking, but Beck’s quick release has bailed him out from missing assignments. If I’m Ole Miss, I’m going after Greene to create some havoc.

Prediction

Ole Miss will hit some explosives on a UGA defense that has been susceptible to them all year. They also will find some success on the ground with Judkins, Bentley, and Dart as Georgia struggles to replace Dumas-Johnson.

Lane Kiffin pulls out all the stops. They just can’t do it for 4 quarters against Kirby Smart on the road. As long as Georgia can avoid catastrophic mistakes, they find a way to win.

Dawgs win but don’t cover: 34 – 28