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Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears: Picks and Preview

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (+1) (o/u 38)


Thursday, October 13th, 8:15 pm EST


Soldier Field

Chicago, IL

How to Watch

Amazon Prime

This Again?

Your crack team of despondent analysts is here to give you another ramshackle preview of a Thursday Night Football matchup that might pull you away from a marathon run of The Golden Girls for ten minutes before you’re forced to turn away from this dumpster fire in search of something more interesting like tax law. It’s the Washington Commanders against the Chicago Bears, folks. Yippee. 

The Godzilla forced a beatdown of his millennial rivals in Week Five. He went 8-6-1 with some big underdog picks (Giants, Falcons). His two favorite panelists came unglued in a wild Sunday, where they just couldn’t seem to see the forest for the trees. Oh well, long season. 

As I write, the Godzilla still sits in last, but the specter of last season looms large over our consciousness. Nate and I need a Thursday Night win in order to stave off the fire-breathing big guy who can’t help but pick twenty favorites over a three-day span. 

The Standings

Thru Week 5 Records Wins Losses Push Winning %
Jack 24 18 1 56%
Nate 24 18 1 56%
John 33 37 3 45%

The Under

Jack: This game is giving me nightmares. The Commanders have burned me at least twice this season. I heard someone smart say that they have the most explosive offense in the league, and I decided to believe them. Faulty logic. 

According to PFF, the Commanders have the 23rd ranked total offense in the NFL. They have scored 90 points this season, which means they average 18 points per game. Their pass offense is ranked 22nd. The rushing offense is 26th. Their pass block ranks at the bottom as well (21st) and their receiving is ranked 24th. The only thing they do remotely well is run block (16th) so look for them to pound the rock and pray Carson Wentz doesn’t fumble four times. 

What about the Bears? Yikes. PFF ranks them 28th in total offense with a rating of 64.4. For reference, the league’s best offense (the Browns…somehow) have an overall rating of 82.2.

The Bears are dead last in passing and Justin Fields has been miserable. He’s averaging 7.7 yards/attempt. He completes 55% of his passes and has thrown just 3 TDs compared with 4 INTs. That’s great. He’s been sacked 18 times. 

The under hovers around 38 points. In the 8 instances where the under has closed at 38 points in the NFL, the under is 7-1. I waited around and got it at 37.5. Grab it at 38 if you can. Pick: Under Total Points +/- 38. 

Millennials Always Agree…

Nate: Jack is absolutely right about this game. It is hideous and should be another absolutely horrible viewing experience brought to you by Jeff Bezos and the NFL. 

I’m hoping it’s busy when I work at the bar tonight because that will spare me from watching this game with any level of depth. 

Like I say every Thursday, my first look is always at the under in these games. Teams often aren’t fully recovered physically from playing just three days ago and the offenses rarely have any time to implement any significant changes to their playbooks which would give these floundering offenses a chance. 

These teams are both pretty bad any way you look at it. I guess Chicago is mid-pack when it comes to running the ball, but that is probably negated by Washington being middle of the road at defending it. 

I got this at 40 earlier in the week and I still like it at 38. This game just screams under. Godzilla will give you a side because he thinks totals are new-age voodoo, and he may be right. That being said, I’d rather just cash a ticket. Don’t overthink it and just ride with this bet again. Pick: Under 38 total points.

Da Bears!

John: This is another stinkball of a Thursday night game. Both teams suck and are going nowhere fast. Both QB’s are horrific. What worries me here is that Wentz can throw the ball downfield, while Justin Feilds can’t. Wentz makes big plays and Fields does not. The Washington secondary looked decent last week against the Titans, but they really could not stop Tennessee’s relentless ground game, even with one regular O-lineman in the game.

Out of character, Riverboat Ron Rivera threw Wentz under the train and backed over him twice as Washington’s pathetic sideshow continues. When asked about his team’s dismal start at 1-4, Rivera said, “It’s a quarterback driven league.” Oh. And he doesn’t have one. He has Wentz.

I’ll go with the Bears at home to have one night where they can at least pretend to be a legit NFL franchise. Pick: Bears +1.



  • Jack Fredericks, Editor

    Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred

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