Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4 Preview and Picks – May 8, 2023

WARRIORS VS LAKERS GAME 4 PREVIEW AND PICKS – MAY 8, 2023 – Happy Monday basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our featured matchup includes the Golden State Warriors taking on the Los Angeles Lakers. Without further delay, let’s look at which team has the edge going into Game 4 of this Western Conference semifinals matchup.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Golden State Warriors (5-5 SU in playoffs, 39-43 ATS)	O228	+3	O227.5	+125
Los Angeles Lakers  (6-3 SU in playoffs, 39-40-3 ATS)	-3.5	-3	U227.5	-150

Tipoff 

When: Monday, May 8, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET 

Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA 

TV: TNT 

Public Bets: 59%, Warriors

Public Money: 56%, Lakers

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 8, 2023 

How We Got Here 

These two teams split the first two games at the Chase Center. The Lakers prevailed in the series opener by a 117-112 margin. Anthony Davis paced the Lakers’ scoring attack with 30 points and 23 rebounds. 

Rather than hang their heads, the defending champs responded accordingly in Game 2. Klay Thompson showed a glimpse of his former self, scoring 30 points, including an 8-for-11 effort from 3-point range. Thanks to Thompson’s long-distance barrage, the Warriors came away with a 127-100 victory.  

With the venue shifting to Los Angeles for Games 3 and 4, the Lakers knew they would need a solid effort from Davis if they wanted to seize control of the series. That is exactly what happened.  

Following a quiet performance in Game 2 (11 points on 11 shot attempts), Davis looked much more assertive in just about every phase of the game. He scored a game-high 25 points, hauled in 13 rebounds and he also tallied three assists, three steals, and four blocks.  

The Lakers performed at a high level at both ends of the floor in Game 3. They placed six players in double digits. They shot 52.5 percent from the field and 15-for-31 (48.4 percent) from beyond the arc.  

And from a defensive standpoint, they made life miserable for the defending champs. Golden State shot just 39.6 percent from the field and a paltry 13-for-44 (29.5 percent) from deep. This stat is significant because the Warriors made 21 three-point field goals in the first two games of the series and they were converting 44.2 percent of their long-range attempts.  

While they were soundly beaten in Game 3, Warriors guard Klay Thompson is doing his best to keep everything in its proper perspective: 

“At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if you win by 30 or lose by 30, it’s still 2-1 (in the series),” Thompson said, via CBS Sports. “We have to remind ourselves we have a chance to even the series and go home. As ugly as (Game 3) was, we have an opportunity to respond on Monday, so there is no point in hanging our heads and getting discouraged.” 

With that sentiment in mind, the Warriors are looking to even up the series once again in Game 4.  

Here are my betting picks for this contest, including my confidence meter for each pick on a scale of one to five stars.  

Over/Under 

The projected over/under total opened at 228 points. The line has moved slightly to 227.5 points, with the over attracting 93 percent of the cash and 89 percent of the tickets. 

For the Lakers, the over has hit eight times in their last 11 games when playing on one day of rest and 8-2 following a SU win of more than 10 points. They beat the Warriors by 30 points in Game 3. 

The over is 12-3 in the Lakers’ last 15 games when they have scored more than 100 points in their previous outing. They scored 127 points against the Warriors on Saturday night.  

For the Warriors, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight times they have played on a Monday night.  

The over holds a 9-4 record in Golden State’s last 13 games on the heels of an SU loss of more than 10 points. Again, the Warriors were defeated by a 30-point margin in Game 3. 

The over total has hit 36 times in the Warriors’ last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. Los Angeles posted a 23-18 record at home during the regular season. 

Lastly, the over is 37-18-2 in the Warriors’ last 57 road contests.  

Prediction: Over 227.5 points (★★★) 

 

The Spread 

The Lakers opened as a consensus four-point favorite. That line has moved to (-3). 

Los Angeles is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven second-round playoff games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests overall.  

The Lakers have won against the spread 10 times in their last 14 games against opponents with an overall winning record. The Warriors finished with a 44-38 during the regular season.  

However, the Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Additionally, they are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 contests after scoring more than 125 points in their previous outing. They scored 127 points against the defending champs in Game 3.  

If you are thinking about taking the Warriors to cover the spread, pay close attention to the following trends.  

The Dubs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. They are also 4-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 10 points, and they are 6-1 in their last seven instances following an SU loss.  

Here is where things get a bit dicey. 

The Dubs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 semifinal games and just 2-7 ATS the last nine times they gave up more than 125 points in their previous outing. The Lakers scored 127 points in Game 3. 

The Warriors are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 road contests, and 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Lakers were 23-18 at home during the regular season.  

The last interesting stat is the Warriors are 47-23-4 ATS the last 74 times they have played on a Monday night, which will be the case in Game 4.  

There are compelling stats for both teams covering the spread here. But since the Warriors have shown up when they’ve absolutely had to during this postseason run, I’m picking them to do so again in Game 4.  

Prediction: Warriors (+3) ★★ 

Player Prop Bet 

My key player to watch in Game 4 is LeBron James. LBJ currently has -115 odds to score more than 26.5 points and -115 odds to score less than 26.5 points.  

During his storied career, James has played against the Warriors in postseason competition 25 times. During that stretch, he is averaging 31.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. 

While James has not scored more than 23 points in each of the first three games of this series, I expect him to exceed the threshold, given the fact that his team has a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead against the defending champs.  

Prediction: LeBron James OVER 26.5 points (★★★★)

 

James’s Picks

Over 227.5 points Warriors +3  Lebron James OVER 26.5 points

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