Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 Preview and Picks – May 6, 2023
WARRIORS VS LAKERS GAME 3 PREVIEW AND PICKS – MAY 6, 2023 — Happy Saturday basketball fans and welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. I am happy that we are at the end of the work week, and I am also looking forward to watching a few games this weekend.
With that sentiment in mind, one of our marquee matchups from this weekend’s slate features the No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors taking on the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers. With the series knotted at one game apiece, here’s a look at which team has the edge going into this pivotal Game 3.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Golden State Warriors(5-4 SU in playoffs,
|
O228.5 |
+3.5 |
O228.5 |
+140 |
Los Angeles Lakers(5-3 SU in playoffs, 39-40-3 ATS) |
-2 |
-3.5 |
U228.5 |
-167 |
Tipoff
When: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
TV: ABC
Public Bets: 51%, Lakers
Public Money: 84%, Lakers
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 6, 2023
How We Got Here
The Warriors faced an 0-2 deficit in their first-round series against the Kings. And despite an abysmal 11-30 record on the road during the regular season, Golden State managed to win two games on the road, including a 120-100 win in Game 7. Meanwhile, the Lakers – who needed a victory in the play-in tournament to make it to the playoffs – ousted the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies in six games.
This marks the fifth time that LeBron James and Stephen Curry will meet in the postseason. The two superstars faced each other in four consecutive NBA Finals series (2015-2018) when James was a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Warriors took three of those series.
Since the Warriors had a better record coming into this matchup, they would have home-court advantage against the Lakers. This was important as the Dubs produced a 33-8 record at the Chase Center during the regular season. However, the well-rested Lakers proved that their success during the last few weeks of the regular season was not a fluke. Behind a 30-point, 23-rebound effort from Anthony Davis, the Lakers withstood a late flurry by the defending champs en route to a 117-112 victory handing the Warriors their second home loss of the postseason.
As was the case in the previous round, the Warriors responded with their backs against the wall. The turning point of Game 2 was the second and third quarters, as the Warriors outscored the Lakers by an 84-47 margin. Klay Thompson led the Warriors’ scoring attack with 30 points, including eight 3-pointers. Curry played more of a traditional point guard role in this one, scoring 20 points to go along with 12 assists.
As the series venue shifts to Los Angeles for the next two games, it will be interesting to see if Golden State can steal another road game or will the Lakers hold serve on their home floor to take a 3-1 lead going into Game 5.
But before we get too far ahead, here are my betting picks for this contest, including my confidence meter for each pick on a scale of one to five stars.
Over/Under
The projected over/under points total for Game 3 opened at 228.5. That line has not moved.
In Game 1, the teams combined for 229 points. And in Game 2, the total scoring output was 227 points.
While that metric is too close for comfort, here are a few trends that suggest why going with the OVER is the way to go.
The Over total has hit for the Warriors in four of their last five games in which they scored 100 or more points in their previous outing. They scored 127 points against the Lakers in Game 2.
The Over is 19-7-1 for Golden State in its last 27 games following a win of more than 10 points. This squad defeated the Lakers by a 27-point margin.
In its last 53 games, the Over has a 38-15 record in the Warriors’ last 53 road games against teams that have a winning home record. The Lakers were 23-18 at home during the regular season and they have won all three of their playoff games at home as well.
The Over has a 37-17-2 mark in the Warriors’ last 56 road games, and a 13-3 record in the Lakers’ last 16 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. The Lakers scored 100 points in Game 2.
The Over has hit 11 times in the Lakers’ last 13 games in which their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous outing. The Dubs gave up 100 points in Game 2.
Lastly, the Over is 12-4 in Los Angeles’s last 16 games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous outing. Again, the Dubs scored 127 points in Game 2.
Prediction: Over 228.5 points ★★★
The Spread
The Lakers opened as a consensus 2-point favorite. That line has moved to (-3.5), with the Under attracting 52 percent of the cash and 62 percent of the tickets (subject to change).
Remember when I mentioned how poorly the Warriors played on the road during the regular season? Well, their record against the spread on the road is just as bad. In fact, the Warriors have a 17-36-1 record ATS in their last 54 road games.
Golden State is 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning home record. The Lakers were 23-18 at home during the season and 3-0 in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a road record of less than .400. The Warriors posted a pedestrian .268 winning percentage on the road.
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games in which they are coming off a loss of more than 10 points.
One other topic worth mentioning is that the Warriors are 0-2 on the road against the Lakers this season. In those two losses, the Lakers averaged 118.5 points per contest while shooting 42.9 percent from the field.
Prediction: Lakers (-3.5) ★★★★
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch for Game 3 is Lakers forward Anthony Davis. While Davis is a living, breathing double-double machine, he often fails to play at a high level consistently.
For example, he posted a couple of 30-point outings against the Grizzlies in the open round. However, he averaged just 20.8 points in that series.
In the series opener against the Warriors, Davis scored 30 points, pulled down 23 rebounds, handed out five assists, and had four blocks as well. But in Game 2, he finished with 11 points and seven rebounds. If the Lakers want to advance, AD will need to bring his “A” game every night.
Davis currently has -120 odds to score more than 24.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than the projected total.
On the heels of the quiet performance, I expect Davis to have a bounce-back and prove to everyone why he is one of the more formidable big men in the NBA.
Prediction: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points ★★★
| James’s Picks | Over 228.5
Lakers -3.5 Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points |
Read more playoff coverage here!