Warriors vs. Lakers Expert Pick - March 5, 2023
WARRIORS VS. LAKERS EXPERT PICK - MARCH 5, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans and welcome back to our weekly column where we break down a few of the marquee matchups from the weekend’s slate of NBA games. The two teams we will discuss today are the Golden State Warriors (34-30) and the Los Angeles Lakers (30-34).
Let’s dive into this matchup between division rivals to see which team has the edge.
When: Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles CA
TV: ABC, TSN
Public Bets: Warriors, 62%
Public Money: Lakers, 72%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 5th, 2023
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Season Trends
The Lakers are currently in the No. 10 spot in the conference playoff race, which is not where they want to be.
To make matters worse, LeBron James is expected to be out of the lineup for approximately three weeks. Not the kind of news you want to hear when your team is trying to make a playoff stretch over the final 20 games of the season.
On the positive side, although the Lakers were defeated 110-102 by the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night, they have won four of their last six games.
On the other side of the equation, the Warriors have not lived up to expectations, either.
Not only that, but they’ve had to deal with key players being out of the lineup. Specifically, Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. Despite Curry missing the last 11 contests with a lower leg injury, the Warriors have gone 7-4 during that stretch, including five consecutive wins in their recent home stand.
In four of those wins, they overcame double-digit deficits. And with Curry expected to make his return against the Lakers, this could give the Warriors the edge against their division rival.
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Head-To-Head & Betting Trends
These two ball clubs have faced each other three times this season. On opening night, behind 33 points from Stephen Curry, and a defense that held the Lakers to 42.6 percent shooting, the Warriors came away with a 123-109 victory.
However, the Lakers were victorious in the next two meetings, which currently gives them a 2-1 edge in the season series.
To be fair, I should mention that Curry did not suit up in either of those two games.
Again, the Lakers will be without their best player. But the Warriors have not played well away from the Chase Center. That said, it will be interesting to see if Golden State can capitalize on James’ absence and get a much-needed road win.
The projected O/U total is 235 points. Ironically, these two teams are averaging a combined 235 points per contest.
The OVER has a 6-2-2 mark for the Warriors in the last 10 games they have played on a Sunday. Also, the OVER has a 5-2 record for the Warriors in the last seven games the opposition had a losing record. The Lakers are 30-34.
The OVER is 21-9-3 for Golden State in its last 33 games in which the team has played on one day of rest. And the OVER has a 37-15-3 record in the Warriors’ last 55 road games. Furthermore, the OVER has a 5-2 record in the past seven meetings between these ball clubs. My advice would be to go with the OVER in this matchup.
The Warriors opened as a consensus six-point favorite. That line has moved a bit to 5.5 points.
The Dubs are 5-0 against the spread when their opponent has allowed more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Lakers gave up 110 points to the Timberwolves.
Golden State has a perfect 5-0-mark ATS when they have scored 100 or more points in their previous outing. The team rallied for a 108-99 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night.
The Warriors hold a 5-0-1-mark ATS in their last six instances in which they’ve played on one day of rest. Additionally, Golden State is 5-2-1 ATS in their previous eight games in which they’ve faced an opponent with a losing record. Again, the Lakers are four games under .500.
While the Dubs have played horribly on the road this season (7-23), I’m picking them to cover the (-5.5) against a Lakers’ squad that is 1-2 since James went down with a foot injury.
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch from this matchup is Lakers forward Anthony Davis. He currently has -110 odds to score more than 28.5 points and -121 odds of scoring less than 28.5 points.
Since joining the Lakers, Davis has played seven games against the Warriors. He is averaging 22.3 points per contest during that stretch.
The caveat here is that Anthony has scored at least 27 points twice in his previous four outings against Los Angeles. It is also worth mentioning that he has scored 28 or more points four times in his last five outings, including a 38-point effort against Minnesota. Based on these metrics, I’m going with the OVER for AD.
Over 235 total points
PPB: Anthony David OVER 28.5 points